The 3095 rally target I’ve projected for the S&P 500 cash index (see below) lies well above current levels. Bulls have had little trouble reaching middling Hidden Pivot targets in the past, but this one will require some effort, since the pattern that produced stretches all the way back to January. It also has unusual clarity, closely resembling a Dow pattern from the early 2000s that correctly predicted a major bull move. The Dow would be trading for around 28,000 if the S&Ps get there. Bears should have no illusions in the meantime that any negative economic news that comes out in the weeks and months ahead will negatively impact the picture. It is not chiseled in stone, but it should be regarded as a high-confidence forecast.
An Ambitious Target for Bulls
- April 29, 2019, 8:57 pm
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April 29, 2019, 12:25 am
Rick- I respect your position as a long-time permabear and have followed with great interest your well-founded bearishness as the market has continued to rise week after week and month after month…with the continued hope that pretty quickly you would be right and the market would finally embark on a steady dive south as you have “long” predicted for a number of solid reasons including the ill-health of the housing and automobile markets as well as the lackluster–to put it politely–growth of certain international economies (Germany, in particular). I sense, although you are right about several indicators, you have for the moment thrown in the towel on your prediction of a near-term nasty reversal of the S&P 500 and pretty “strongly,” as Trump once said, recommend aggressive buying of the most popular stuff like MSFT, AMZN, HD–and, of course, the June E-Mini S&P? Also, at this point, I assume, you are no longer finding that the Boyz are “distributing” in large measure to the bears (but, rather, going long)? Lastly, is it possible to console those readers who took seriously your persistent bearish tone and did prudently lightened up their aging longs in the last week as we’re about to reach the old high on the S&P 500?
Hello, Thomas. If you are in fact lightening up at these levels, it’s likely you’ve enjoyed a profitable ride thus far — at least I hope so. I don’t know how closely you’ve followed my work, but the trading “touts” I publish daily have precise targets that are intended to lend nuance to my somewhat sensationalized headlines. I view myself as one of the most bullish permabears/doomsdayers in the guru world — a matter of trusting my charts over logic and instinct.