Ricks Picks

LEN – Lennar Corp. (Last:48.08)

EST

A homebuilder friend of mine who is also a stock-market junkie and savvy trader emailed me a dismal-looking chart of Lennar Tuesday with this bearish note: “The homies have spoken. Get short [the stock market] or miss the down move.” This guy can boast of months when he made more money presciently trading the shares of Lennar, Beazer, D.R. Horton, Pulte et al. than he did from his high-powered construction job. He even managed to tune out habitually upbeat talk in the board room and executive washroom for long enough to clean up on last year’s collapse in lumber prices.  And that is why I do not take his trading tips lightly. However, in this case the evidence he presents is so seductive that I am inclined do the opposite — i.e., embrace the seemingly absurd possibility of an imminent upsurge in residential construction. The very idea flouts my gut feeling that America will be in recession before the year ends.

Matching Epaulets

And yet, study Lennar’s chart (inset) and you can easily imagine a reverse head-and-shoulders pattern taking shape with the power to launch Lennar, and presumably other ‘homies’, significantly higher within the next four to six weeks.  I have never put much store in H&S patterns because they are virtually everywhere a trader wants to see them. But this one, with drooping epaulets that look like perfectly matched earrings, is so alluring as to confound the skeptic. We’ll probably know by mid-July whether the chart was warning of trouble or throbbing with opportunity. In the meantime, if we get another month of declining home sales, don’t scoff at the possibility of a trampoline bounce-from-nowhere in this statistic. _______ UPDATE (Jul 1, 7:27 p.m.): If bulls are going to turn the stock around, their best opportunity will come at 46.22, a midpoint Hidden Pivot support shown in this chart.



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Tuesday, August 20, 2019

The consistent accuracy of Rick Ackerman’s forecasts is well known in the trading world, where his Hidden Pivot Method has achieved cult status. Rick’s proprietary trading/forecasting system is easy to learn, probably because he majored in English, not rocket science. Just one simple but powerful trick -- managing the risk of an ongoing trade with stop-losses based on ‘impulse legs’ – can be grasped in three minutes and put to profitable use immediately. Quite a few of his students will tell you that using ‘impulsive stops’ has paid for the course many times over.

Another secret Rick will share with you, “camouflage trading,” takes more time to master, but once you get the hang of it trading will never be the same. The technique entails identifying ultra-low-risk trade set-ups on, say, the one-minute bar chart, and then initiating trades in places where competition tends to be thin.

Most important of all, Rick will teach you how to develop market instincts (aka “horse sense”) by observing the markets each day from the fixed vantage point that only a rigorously disciplined trading system can provide.

The three-hour Hidden Pivot Course is offered live each month. If it’s more convenient, you can take it in recorded form at your leisure, as many times as you like. The course fee includes “live” trading sessions (as opposed to hypothetical ‘chalk-talk’) every Wednesday morning, access to hundreds of recorded hours of tutorial sessions, and access to an online library that will help you achieve black-belt mastery of Hidden Pivot trading techniques.

The next webinar will be held on Tuesday, August 20. Click below to register or get more information.

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