Ricks Picks

As Uber Nation Grows, Who Will Get Rich?


Uber shares are in the capable hands of world-class manipulators, judging from the way they powered the stock past a tidal wave of bad earnings news on Thursday. Calling these arse bandits “the smart money” doesn’t quite do them justice. If they were in another line of business — horse-racing, perhaps — what they accomplished over the last day-and-a-half with Uber stock would be equivalent to winning the Kentucky Derby with a ten-year-old glue horse. Take a look at the chart, which shows after-hours trading as green bars. When news hit after the close that the company had suffered its largest quarterly loss ever, the stock plunged $5.62, or about 13%, in mere seconds. But it gained back nearly 90% of it almost as quickly and has since settled into a holding pattern around $40. Amazingly, that price is above where the stock was trading the day before the awful news hit. It is currently near the midpoint of Thursday’s wild gyrations, whistling an Adele tune as though nothing had happened.

Harry’s Mythical Furniture Store

Uber’s business model is reminiscent of the National Lampoon comedy sketch about a mythical Harry’s Furniture Store, where prices are so low that the store loses a little money on each sale. “So how do you turn those losses into profits?” asks the interviewer. “We make it up with volume!!” replies Harry. Uber similarly is serving up the same story, helped by a credulous press that never tires of hyping companies that operate on a grand scale, no matter what their prospects. Uber’s CEO doesn’t quite come out and say it, but they are just a $70 billion version of Harry’s, with a vision of, if not profits, then smaller losses. “The company’s bookings are still increasing at an impressive rate,” reported The Wall Street Journal— “above 30%—and [Khosrowshahi] is confident driver subsidies will fall long term as the company keeps expanding in areas like Uber Eats food delivery.” (We note that Amazon exited the food-delivery business because it couldn’t make money at it.)

Rick’s Picks is on record with a prediction that neither Uber nor Lyft will turn a profit in the foreseeable future — even if, as some investors appear to be betting, one of them goes out of business.  Regardless, investors and Wall Street touts seem to think Uber will someday make tens of billions of dollars every year using drivers who will continue to work 60 hours a week just to pay the rent. The drivers must surely know that the eventual profitability of ride-hailing companies explicitly depends on their getting less and less compensation over time. If this comes to pass, the drivers will be living an oxymoron: self-employed slaves.

Middle America’s Underemployed

Is serving Uber Nation the sorry fate of an increasingly underemployed middle America? Walk down any major street in a big city and you might get the impression from all the Uber/Lyft cars that we’re already halfway there. The prospect that someday millions of workers will drive for ride-hailing and food-delivery companies is not exactly a vision of prosperity. Do investors who have valued a profitless Uber at $70 billion actually believe they will get rich off creative destruction of such magnitude as Uber has visited on taxi fleets and auto makers? This is deflation operating on an epic scale, literally where the rubber meets the road. If there are going to be any big winners, they are not likely to be those who are buying shares of Uber and Lyft at current prices.

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John Jay August 11, 2019, 11:54 am

The stock exchanges are, and have been for some time, Mel Brook’s great movie “The Producers.”

Crowd funding on a colossal scale!

“Leo, how much of a percent of anything can you sell?”
“Max, you can only sell 100% of anything.”
“Aha! And how much of Springtime for Hitler have we sold?”
“Twenty-five thousand percent.”
“Twenty-five thousand percent! I need to look at the money!”

And then………………


See how it works?

The only difference is the scale of the fraud.

And that instead of arrest and a prison sentence, the perps pay pitifully small bribes to the SEC and Congress, and take the bribes off their taxes!
A perpetual “Get out of jail free” card!


Pan August 9, 2019, 12:12 am

Dear Rick,

You have been for awhile now, and still are, one of the most insightful and interesting commentators out there. If you ever find the time, you should write a book.


Thanks for your kind words, Pan.

I’m unenthused about writing a book because it would take a lot of time and there are no guarantees it would sell. A tough line of work, for sure. RA

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