Because Apple’s story has grown dull as dirt, it is appropriate that we focus on the company’s shares as a key bull-market bellwether. Portfolio managers are surely aware that iPhone sales are weakening and that the Cupertino giant has lost its way as an innovator. Nor can any of them be excited by Apple’s belated move into streaming content (competing as a discounter, it would appear). And yet, institutional investors seem to have no qualms about throwing vast quantities of Other People’s Money at AAPL to keep it buoyant, and about buying dips that they themselves have engineered.
A Lazy Bull
This is a lazy way to keep the bull market going, and it is why we should be skeptical of every uptick. However, my current outlook says AAPL is headed at least 10% higher, to exactly 242.48. If this prediction proves correct it would mean the Dow and the S&Ps are going higher as well, even if not as steeply. Notice in the chart that the stock impaled the red line last week on the way up. That’s what I call a midpoint Hidden Pivot, and when it is trashed on first contact as occurred here, one can infer with confidence that the ‘D’ target of the pattern — in this case 242.48 — will be reached.
This is hard to believe, given that housing, autos, manufacturing and maybe even consumer spending have peaked. I’ll put aside my gut feeling for now, though, and go with the charts, since they have rarely failed me.
Comments on this entry are closed.
I’d believe a 243.58 overshoot target (up from 1/3/19 142 low) but first bulls would need to get past a 233.77 wave 3 target (up from 6/28/17 141.7 low) which is a near potential double top with the 10/3/18 233.47 all time high.
This bull market will only end after the blow-off top, with money concentrating in the US:
* Martin Armstrong, September 18, Flight from Public to Private:
When you enter these periods of uncertainty, interest rates, dividends, and expectations of profits no longer mean anything. The primary objective is to park money in a safe place where you get it back. Banks are questionable with bail-in policies and negative interest rates. Now even gold is being targeted. Where else to go but equities?
33,161 on the Dow still looks good.
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How about long-dated Treasurys, for one. But stocks as a safe haven? Maybe in times of rampant inflation, but not now. Armstrong has made a better argument here AGAINST equities than he has justified their purchase. RA