When you say ” And, that reality (best house in a bad neighborhood) will, likely, prevail for quite some time to come–as the US stock market offers opportunity for appreciation versus sitting in cash somewhere?” then I guess it comes down to ones perception of what that word ‘reality’ actually means.
Yes I suspect we can mostly agree these elevated valuations are down to an abundance of easy money and a dearth of investment alternatives, hence share buybacks etc.
As to whether this current state of affairs is a sound and lasting ‘real’ basis for the valuation of anything, including the stock market, then I think that one’s up for discussion.
And let’s not fool ourselves and think all these money managers are just so stupid that they don’t know it themselves, but just like the subprime crisis, while the music’s playing you keep dancing.
So when the day comes that someone or something triggers the pack to consider just for a moment a look back at fundamental supports, oh you know things like the state of the global economy, geo-political affairs, investments that actually have something tangible underlying them, then the herd, like a flock of headless chickens, will panic for the bolting gate.
When that happens, then this current state of ‘reality’ will melt away overnight. When something can disappear overnight, I’m not certain just how ‘real’ that can be really.
As to the timing, yes I agree, who the hell knows huh? : )
THOMAS WHITEOct 7, 2019 @ 1:22
You wrote, “One might think the dark cloud of recession billowing over China and Europe these days would have caused investors to lower their expectations for the U.S. economy.” Do you mean this in a qualitative sense? Or, are you saying, factually, that analysts have not, or done little to, reflect the “dark cloud of recession” in their current forecasts?
When the DaBoyz decide to put their foot on the necks to the shorts in an oversold market, naturally, the many of the shorts will begin to panic and cover. On this basis why should any of these participants care about “a global slowdown?” That reality is irrelevant when manipulation is ruling the day, correct?
How often, would you say, are ‘Hidden Pivot’ targets in the Dow missed by not-so-trivial, say, 300-400 points? Are there straight-forward explanations for such outcomes? Or, are these outcomes simple examples of why the Hidden Pivot devotee should always be prepared to be stopped out?
You wrote, “there is no reason to think that a deepening global downturn, impeachment mayhem and signs of a top in the U.S. economy will impair buyers’ bad judgment.” Mutual funds, most money managers, and hedge fund managers are required so mostly, if not entirely stay invested. Are you saying that their “bad judgment” refers to the high-flyers, over-owned growth stocks, and the FANG’s, for example?
When you say, “a world awash in credit money,” do you mean the (abundance of) easy money available due to low interest rates?
Finally, isn’t the key to what remaining upward bias exists the, as you mentioned, “dearth of investment alternatives?” And, that reality (best house in a bad neighborhood) will, likely, prevail for quite some time to come–as the US stock market offers opportunity for appreciation versus sitting in cash somewhere?
Rick AckermanOct 7, 2019 @ 21:53
I see that Pan has done a good job answering most of your questions. Concerning how often Hidden Pivot targets miss, let alone by a mile, the answer is almost never. Skeptical? Then you should take a free two-week trial subscription to see for yourself how precisely accurate these targets are. Sign up at the top of my home page by leaving your name and email address — no credit card necessary. As for Hidden Pivot targets, they caught highs in the E-mini S&Ps and Comex Gold this morning by, respectively, one tick and two ticks. Subscribers actually used these target to make actual cash money.
Regarding the ‘dearth of investment alternatives’, you sound like you’ve never experienced a bear market before. You also seem to believe that a bull market can continue more or less indefinitely. Yes, it more or less can; but I am pretty sure we are in the ‘less’ stage of this one.
Comments on this entry are closed.
Dear Thomas,
When you say ” And, that reality (best house in a bad neighborhood) will, likely, prevail for quite some time to come–as the US stock market offers opportunity for appreciation versus sitting in cash somewhere?” then I guess it comes down to ones perception of what that word ‘reality’ actually means.
Yes I suspect we can mostly agree these elevated valuations are down to an abundance of easy money and a dearth of investment alternatives, hence share buybacks etc.
As to whether this current state of affairs is a sound and lasting ‘real’ basis for the valuation of anything, including the stock market, then I think that one’s up for discussion.
And let’s not fool ourselves and think all these money managers are just so stupid that they don’t know it themselves, but just like the subprime crisis, while the music’s playing you keep dancing.
So when the day comes that someone or something triggers the pack to consider just for a moment a look back at fundamental supports, oh you know things like the state of the global economy, geo-political affairs, investments that actually have something tangible underlying them, then the herd, like a flock of headless chickens, will panic for the bolting gate.
When that happens, then this current state of ‘reality’ will melt away overnight. When something can disappear overnight, I’m not certain just how ‘real’ that can be really.
As to the timing, yes I agree, who the hell knows huh? : )
You wrote, “One might think the dark cloud of recession billowing over China and Europe these days would have caused investors to lower their expectations for the U.S. economy.” Do you mean this in a qualitative sense? Or, are you saying, factually, that analysts have not, or done little to, reflect the “dark cloud of recession” in their current forecasts?
When the DaBoyz decide to put their foot on the necks to the shorts in an oversold market, naturally, the many of the shorts will begin to panic and cover. On this basis why should any of these participants care about “a global slowdown?” That reality is irrelevant when manipulation is ruling the day, correct?
How often, would you say, are ‘Hidden Pivot’ targets in the Dow missed by not-so-trivial, say, 300-400 points? Are there straight-forward explanations for such outcomes? Or, are these outcomes simple examples of why the Hidden Pivot devotee should always be prepared to be stopped out?
You wrote, “there is no reason to think that a deepening global downturn, impeachment mayhem and signs of a top in the U.S. economy will impair buyers’ bad judgment.” Mutual funds, most money managers, and hedge fund managers are required so mostly, if not entirely stay invested. Are you saying that their “bad judgment” refers to the high-flyers, over-owned growth stocks, and the FANG’s, for example?
When you say, “a world awash in credit money,” do you mean the (abundance of) easy money available due to low interest rates?
Finally, isn’t the key to what remaining upward bias exists the, as you mentioned, “dearth of investment alternatives?” And, that reality (best house in a bad neighborhood) will, likely, prevail for quite some time to come–as the US stock market offers opportunity for appreciation versus sitting in cash somewhere?
I see that Pan has done a good job answering most of your questions. Concerning how often Hidden Pivot targets miss, let alone by a mile, the answer is almost never. Skeptical? Then you should take a free two-week trial subscription to see for yourself how precisely accurate these targets are. Sign up at the top of my home page by leaving your name and email address — no credit card necessary. As for Hidden Pivot targets, they caught highs in the E-mini S&Ps and Comex Gold this morning by, respectively, one tick and two ticks. Subscribers actually used these target to make actual cash money.
Regarding the ‘dearth of investment alternatives’, you sound like you’ve never experienced a bear market before. You also seem to believe that a bull market can continue more or less indefinitely. Yes, it more or less can; but I am pretty sure we are in the ‘less’ stage of this one.