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GCZ19 – December Gold (Last:1468.40)

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The futures were  slipping below the water line Monday evening, threatening to negate the support of a 1454.40 midpoint Hidden Pivot support. It is tied to a 1429.50 target given here earlier, although it’s possible the downtrend will go no further than p2=1441.90. The bad news is that that is my minimum downside objective for the near term. Clearly, gold cannot swim upstream, not even a little bit, as the stock market continues its by-now historical wilding spree.  Here’s a step-by-step forecast for the next couple of weeks that I posted in the chat room. Let’s see how I do: “First, a decisive breach of p=1454.40; then, instead of continuing down to D=1429.50, GCZ reverses sharply to trigger a not-unappetizing mechanical short at x=1466.80. But instead of doing what it is supposed to do — i.e., delivering a quick profit by plunging to p=1454.40 — it continues higher, breaking above C=1479.20 to turn everyone bullish. The rally will come within 1.20 of some minor ABCD target; then the uptrend, on an overnight spike as usual, sputters out and dies, reversing punitively.” (Note: 1436.10 for the February contract is equivalent to the one at 1429.50.) _______ UPDATE (Dec 2, 9:16 p.m.):  Click here for a play-play scenario that I posted last week; and here for a chart that shows how it would play out for the February contract.  So far, price action has gone more or less according to plan. If you’re interested only in the bottom line, Feb Gold could fall to 1436.10, but don’t be surprised if the little sonofabitch head-fakes first.  It’d take a print at 1496.40 to rouse my enthusiasm once again.

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  • GFC November 26, 2019, 8:14 am

    Bear leg down from 9/4 1566.2 high targeted 1467.8 which was hit on 10/1. A second bear leg down from 10/3 1525.8 high targets 1426.6 which should have been hit by 10/30 but now will likely be hit by 12/17 if bears can get past the 11/12 1446.2 low so far. Conversely, bulls have a leg up from the 11/12 1446.2 low to a 1484.4 target if they can stay above the 11/25 1451.4 low.