The trend has turned lazy this week, but we should not fail to notice that bulls haven’t given up much ground. Rather than hang out yet one more potentially important top, I’ve focused on a minor one with a pattern that on Friday generated a mechanical buy signal. The ABCD here is gnarly but text-book beautiful, and that’s why I expect a pullback precisely from the 3215.00 target. More immediately, a mechanical bid at the red line (3184.00), stop 3173.50, would offer decent odds. I’d rate the trade a ‘6.7’ because the eventual move past p was labored and not especially sharp or decisive. ______ UPDATE (Dec 18, 10:50 p.m. EST): Now that FedEx shares have joined Boeing’s on the disabled list, we need to give more weight to the possibility that the stock market’s tedious oscillations this week are just distribution. Keep in mind that if an avalanche is coming, it will be telegraphed by small abcd patterns exceeding their ‘d’ targets. _______ UPDATE (Dec 19, 5:54 p.m.): The futures are within a millimeter of the 3215.00 target, which can be shorted using a stop-loss as tight as 3216.25. If it’s hit and decisively exceeded, the next stop will be 3229.75, off this pattern. Both targets look like high-odds spots for a precise turn.
ESH20 – March E-Mini S&P (Last:3212.75)