Three months after bottoming an inch from a well-advertised Hidden Pivot target at 96.40, the Dollar Index has generated its first bullish impulse leg on the 240-minute chart. This was accomplished with great subtlety, since DXY exceeded the requisite external peak I’d identified by just a penny. That’s all it took, though, to transform the balky rally of the last three weeks into a promising new start for the greenback. Now, any retracement that stays above 96.36 will be presumed corrective and therefore a buy. It remains to be seen how much pressure a waxing dollar will put on bullion, but as a chat room denizen noted, gold more than held its own when the dollar rallied sharply in the June-October period. _______ UPDATE (Jan 27, 10:05 p.m.): A Hidden Pivot resistance at 98.13 is a logical place for a short-term top. ________ UPDATE (Jan 28, 9:04 p.m. EST): DXY dropped 0.22 points after peaking at 98.16, just three cents above my target. Let’s see how long the top holds. _______ UPDATE (Feb 1, 10:49 p.m.): The selloff from within pennies of the 98.13 target I’d flagged continues to lengthen, but support should come in around 97.10. Let’s see how it fares. _______ UPDATE (Feb 4, 9:57 p.m.): The dollar got traction at 97.37, well above the support I’d flagged above. This is mildly bullish, but DXY will needed to take out the old high at 98.19 to generate some excitement. _______ UPDATE (Feb 5, 9:56 p.m.): The dollar easily cracked the 98.19 resistance. Now, if it blows past the 98.47 target shown in this chart, it would imply bulls are still rarin’ to go. ______ UPDATE (Feb 6, 9:00 p.m.): DXY easily pierced the 98.47 ‘hidden’ resistance, implying that still higher prices are coming. ________ UPDATE (Feb 10, 9:37 p.m.): The rally is approaching a Hidden Pivot resistance at 98.86 that looks likely to show some stopping power. Let’s see how bulls handle it before we assess the further potential of the uptrend. _______ UPDATE (Feb 11, 8:36 p.m.): Buyers have pushed the Dollar Index to within an inch of a potentially important rally target at 99.00 that remains viable. The target has been adjusted slightly upward to correct an error. Here’s the chart.
DXY – NYBOT Dollar Index (Last:98.78)
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