I’ve gotten a couple of congratulatory emails from Trader Mike congratulating me for nailing THE top in Apple, but I’m not so sure myself. Whatever the case, he’s had an opportunity to leg into a June 250-245 put spread 20 times for a $30 credit. That means the worst he can do is make $600 on the position even if the stock rallies to the moon, but as much as $10,000 if it tanks. He credits me for getting him aboard with perfect timing, but my timing was actually a tad imperfect, since the stock went against him — and my target — by a few points before it turned south with a vengeance. The fact that he still holds a position is attributable as much to his guts as to my more or less accurate forecast. Subscribers who followed Mike in could have done the same spread for as much as a $1.15 credit, since the long side of the position, the June 250 puts, traded as low as 1.87 after he was aboard. If any of you did the trade, please let me know in the chat room and I’ll beef up my guidance. Regarding AAPL’s next move, here’s a chart that shows a plausible path down to as low as 299.54. over the next day or two. Trade it at your discretion. ______ UPDATE (Feb 3, 9:45 p.m. EST): The dirtballs tipped their (bullish) hand Monday when they took AAPL down to 302.22 on the opening bar even as the broad averages roared higher. This will have been the easiest money they’ve made in a while, but it has left a trail of death and dismemberment on the hourly chart that may take a couple of days to smooth over. Don’t be surprised in the meantime if the stock’s price action turns hostile, by turns, toward bulls and bears alike. ______ UPDATE (Feb 5, 9:29): Even after a bull-trap opening that eviscerated buyers in the early going, AAPL still managed to tack on a $3 gain. A test of the all-time high at 327.90 recorded last Tuesday appears imminent, although it could take a couple of days to get there. ______ UPDATE (Feb 8, 12:42 p.m.) AAPL’s canny handlers spent last week trying to squeeze bears to the old high at 327.90. They failed by around $2, casting mild doubts on the project. Let’s see what the new week brings. The 314.35 midpoint pivot of this ‘reverse’ pattern can be used to bottom-fish, preferably on a chart of smaller degree. _______ UPDATE (Feb 10, 9:20 p.m.): The mafia that works this stock pulled a stick-up in broad daylight this morning, taking the stock down more than $6 on the opening bar in order to shake down widows, pensioners and other easy marks. The so-far $8 short squeeze this brazen maneuver was designed to trigger was still in progress Monday night, bound for a test of last week’s high at 325.22. Although odds are good that the stock will punch through it, we’ll be looking to get short, rABC-style, in the range 325.22 – 327.85. ______ UPDATE (Feb 12, 9:38 p.m.): The stock has rallied into the range noted in the last update. Get short if AAPL now falls to 325.91 and has not exceeded the point ‘c’ high at 327.41 shown in this chart. If you use options, Feb 21 305 puts for 0.53 or less would offer a good deal. _______ UPDATE (Feb 13, 1:52 p.m.): The trade detailed in the last update was a winner, but only if you did stock rather than options, since the weak opening spiked the puts to 0.72. AAPL has still yet to trade above 327.41 — has in fact traded as low as 323.35 and is below the 325.91 short ‘trigger’ as of this moment.
AAPL – Apple Computer (Last:325.61)