The futures finished the day exactly where they were last Friday, at the bottom of a monster rally. Thousand-point swoons aside — and there were more of them than we could accurately recall — the week has been a big nothingburger. Seeing the glass as half-empty, some might have characterized Thursday’s gratuitous swings as bearish, since stocks made no headway. But others would have noticed how sellers failed to break new ground. It was in fact an inside day, with a high and low that fell within the previous day’s range. Add in the fact that nearly all of the FAANG/lunatic stocks showed substantial gains, and you might think DaBoyz were developing thrust for a week-ending short squeeze. The fact that AAPL and Boeing lost ground makes the bullish case even more persuasive, since it suggests the ultrasmart money was saving its energy to spring a bear trap worthy of the name.
That’s my take, and I’d feel even more strongly if index futures are trading moderately lower at the opening bell, looking ready to rumble. As for the 2204.25 downside target we’ve been using since Sunday, it looks almost too phat to go unfulfilled. But if this triple witching day ends with the E-Minis above Tuesday’s 2543 peak and news over the weekend is less than horrible, expect bulls to come out swinging Sunday night. Virus news has been ever-so-slightly less depressing over the last two days and economic news ugly but not indigestible. The subtle shift could provide perhaps just enough emotional decompression to give shares room to take a deep breath.