Just so you know, the biggest rally since 1933 has yet to surpass even a single ‘external’ peak on the hourly chart. For that reason, I’ll reserve my enthusiasm for the time being — especially since we know that the purpose of bear rallies is to fool us into believing they are the real McCoy. Did today’s wild-eyed buying ignore the reality that grave uncertainties will continue to hang over the economy for the foreseeable future? Of course it did. Did Trump’s optimism go over-the-top when he circled April 12, Easter, as the goal for loosening the lockdown on commerce? For sure. As it happened, just minutes before he spoke, the World Health Organization was predicting America will be the scene of the next big outbreak.
Don’t think I am going to get in the way of this speeding locomotive, though, no sirree. But I will remain skeptical as long as my stock charts fail to confirm such unwarranted exuberance as we saw today. As I keep reminding you, it’s all about impulse legs, and I will continue to look at ABC patterns in ES and other trading vehicles as though they were formed from inconsequential, one-minute price bars. They are all the same to me. For now, that means buyers will need to push this brick past past 2542.75, an ‘external’ peak that I’ve labeled in the chart. Also, I cannot simply overlook the fact that the recent lows shredded a clear and very important downside target at 2206.75. Some chartists would say this Hidden Pivot support held, albeit barely. In my estimation it didn’t, and the 1956.25 downside target given here earlier will therefore remain theoretically valid until such time as C=2697.25 is exceeded to the upside. Until that happens, forgive me for not being excited. Isn’t that why you subscribe to Rick’s Picks? _______ UPDATE (Mar 25, 8:26 p.m.): Despite the sharp selloff in the final hour, I doubt that bears are done torturing themselves. At the moment, the futures are just a tick shy of triggering a theoretical buy signal at x=2496.50. If and when this occurs, it would put p=2528.38 in play as a minimum upside objective. Thereafter, if short-covering panic drives the futures past that Hidden Pivot resistance easily, you can infer they’re on their way to D=2622.00.