ESM20 – June E-Mini S&Ps (Last:2784.50)

DaBoyz have obligingly stepped out of the way Thursday night, allowing a short-squeeze panic to do what mere bullish buying never could. The June contract now looks like an almost certain bet to reach a 2921.75 target we’ve been using for the last week that seemed a little farfetched when I first posted it.  Since these targets sometimes behave in Heisenberg-like ways, we should assume that my having aired the target on the home page will make it a less than stellar spot to stake out a big short position. We can try it just the same, but with entry risk very tightly controlled. My hunch is that the trade will produce at least a small profit but that buyers will retake the offensive quickly and drive the June contract to the marquee-suitable 3000 before remorse starts killing off the rally’s most intrepid spear-carriers. ______ UPDATE (Apr 21, 12:25 a.m.): ES has tripped a weak ‘mechanical’ buy signal at p=2771.25, but we are already a step behind it, and I would only have recommended it in the first place to Pivoteers who can cut the implied entry risk of $2500 per contract down to a fifth of that or less.  Why a ‘weak’ signal? Because the tortuous C-D leg has given initially-too-eager bulls a chance to jump ship after booking a profit. Here’s the chart. ______ UPDATE (Apr 21, 10:12 p.m.): Just a tad lower and the futures will trigger a mechanical buy at 2696.00 (the green line), stop 2620.50. This trade is even riskier than the one at p=2771.25 (see above), and I am therefore recommending it only to Pivoteers who are comfortable on double-diamond slopes. If it gets stopped out, that would suggest distribution has been at Category 5 strength, since the April 5/7 A-B impulse leg was  powerful enough to all but guarantee a move to at least D=2921.75. _______ UPDATE (Apr 22, 9:46 p.m.): The futures took off without deferring to our niggardly bid at 2696.00. The 2921.75 target remains viable nonetheless, and the Trading Room seems energized over the prospect of using it.