Yield Curve Got It Right

My colleague Bob Hoye saw a yield curve inversion that occurred in July as reason to prepare his subscribers for the stock market crash that has ensued. Every inversion since 1857 foretold a recession, suggesting that even without the pandemic, shares were headed for trouble. Still more concerning, he notes, is that the curve inverted twice this time, a rare and especially ominous event seen only in 1873, 1929 and 2007. These were all memorable years in the annals of economic ruin. Will we be fortunate enough to escape with something less this time? The next few weeks may hold the answer, but prayer couldn’t hurt.

  • Ben April 3, 2020, 1:45 am

    “The next few weeks may hold the answer, but prayer couldn’t hurt.”

    What a coincidence… Before I stopped by here to see if your new article was up, I said a quick prayer of intercession for the unemployed, as well as their former and potential future employers. And I did that because, while having a midnight snack, I glanced at the daily junk mail sitting on the table. Got some coupons and a menu from a local pizza joint that I never heard of. They must be trying to drum up business, I thought. Wish I could help them with some business, but I’m afraid that’s just out of the question this month. I imagine many in my area are likewise on tight budgets. Don’t know what all the local restaurants and other businesses are going to do. Nor their unemployed customers, for that matter.

    Anyway, Rick, I also agree that, even without the pandemic, the economy wasn’t exactly on solid footing. That we can’t even manufacture our own N95 masks and, apparently, even simple drugs, should convince everyone that we’ve long been on the wrong path. But some are so ssslllooowww on the uptake…

    Right now, I’m _frustrated_ with conservatives that can’t stop crying over the necessary lock-downs, who give the strong impression of caring more about their stock portfolio than human life. Time to wake up, look around, and just accept that this happening, guys! And, no, Trump did NOT just wave a magic wand and fix the entire U.S. economy in just three years. Get real! Conservatives were well aware of the deep economic issues that this country has been wrecked by over the past decades… until Trump won and the line on the chart started going up into new territory. Then, all of a sudden, everything was “fixed” and forgotten. Now they have to deal with the reality that it wasn’t, and that they can’t rightly pin all this on “over-reaction”. Know how many times I’ve been called “communist lefty” this past month?

    Yeah. Very frustrating!