Today’s trampoline bounce obviously caught bears by surprise, but it would be premature for them to give up. The chart shows that all of the ups and downs since April 30, including today’s nasty short-squeeze, have occurred below a small but technically significant ‘look-to-the-left’ peak at 2975.00 recorded in early March. A key assumption of the Hidden Pivot Method is that to remain healthy, a bull trend must exceed a prior ‘external’ peak with each new upthrust. It didn’t happened here, even if the shortfall relative to April 30’s 2972.25 peak was just three points. That’s enough to place the burden of proof on bulls at the moment, although I would caution against getting in their way too aggressively. We should trade on Friday with no strong bias, but also no fear of shorting provided we do it by-the-book, ‘camo’-style.
ESM20 – June E-Mini S&Ps (Last:2848.00)