AAPL still looks like a lead-pipe cinch to achieve the 537.50 rally target shown in the chart. Whether it takes a few days or a couple of weeks, the broad averages will be moving higher simultaneously, because that’s how the game works. The stock will open Monday trading for around $125, since it is splitting four-for-one. The reason for the adjustment is that some big shareholders want out, and the only way they can accomplish this is by lowering the price to attract millions of new greater fools. The Robinhood crowd, for one, but also every small investor who has dreamed of owning a few shares of the institutional world’s most cherished stock.
At $125 per share, it’s not cheap. But the price is low enough that even a millennial living in his parents’ basement can probably scrape together enough cash to purchase a round lot. There are surely enough odd-lotters to take hundreds of a billions of dollars worth of stock off the hands of pros who recognize how absurdly overvalued AAPL is. We get a sense of just how many small-timers are out there to bail them out whenever a PowerBall jackpot hits nine figures. Imagine how large the lotto jackpots would be if, instead of buying $5-$10 worth of lottery tickets, the rubes spent $3,000-$5,000 as they absolutely will on Apple shares. Do the math, That’s what portfolio managers are counting on, since they know AAPL offers extremely poor value at these levels.
For trading purposes, you should stay close to the chat room if you’re keen to play. The stock would trigger a ‘mechanical’ buy if it fell to 488.97. However, the implied stop-loss at 470.12 would risk nearly $1,700 per round lot — far more than our usual gambit. But it will always be possible to cut the entry risk very significantly using the lesser intraday charts for ‘camouflage’ and ‘rABC’ trade set-ups. Breaking news: Here’s a chart of AAPL, post-split, with a 134.37 target. _______ UPDATE (Sep 1, 5:34 p.. ET): Yet another unalleviated, undeserved rally, but this one couldn’t get past the target. It topped at 134.80 in the early afternoon, a 0.03% overshoot, and although the subsequent pullback was shallow, repeated head-butts failed to budge the ‘hidden’ resistance. It’s hard to imagine it withstanding another charge, but stranger things have happened. Above it, AAPL would be an odds-on bet to reach a minimum 138.79 (30-min, A= 113.05 on 8/14)