Gold was probably oblivious to news of Trump’s illness on Friday, but not to the modest upswing in the dollar. As a result, the December futures couldn’t hold onto a $7 gain achieved overnight. The intraday high occur an inch above the 1921.90 Hidden Pivot I’d proffered as a target the night before, but that’s not enough to assume with confidence that the subsequent pullback is going to be a consolidation for another leg up on Monday. Bulls held the edge at the bell nonetheless, and as long as they don’t let the futures dip below C=1885.80 (see inset), they shall remain favored. _______ UPDATE (Oct 5, 5:27 p.m.): The rally on dollar weakness may have looked impressive, but it exceeded zero ‘external’ peaks. The closest lies at 1925.50 (9/21 on the hourly chart), and let’s hold the applause until it has been breached on a closing basis or decisively bettered intraday. ______ UPDATE (Oct 6, 8:18 p.m.): The timid poke above 1925.30 should have fooled no one — but it obviously did, given the way gold collapsed on news that Trump had taken stimulus talk off the table. The bullish trend since Sep 28’s 1851.10 low remains intact nonetheless, but the burden of proof has shifted heavily onto bulls. Whatever happens, plan on bottom-fishing with a tight stop-loss if and when the futures fall to the 1838.00 target shown in this chart. _______ UPDATE (Oct 9, 8:59 a.m.): This morning’s so-far $33 upsurge would need to tack on an additional $56 to become technically significant. Here’s a chart that explains why.
GCZ20 – December Gold (Last:1927.80)