The week ended with modest rally that created a bullish impulse on the hourly chart (see inset). Despite this, I expect the futures to continue on their way down to the 1822.80 target, which is somewhat higher than the one given previously. In fact, if buyers drive this vehicle to the green line at 1910.20, that would trip a mechanical short, stop 1939.40. The short-term picture would brighten, however, if a rally takes out an external peak at 1917.30 recorded last week on the way down by Wednesday. That would shorten the odds of a breakout above the 1939.40 high that defines the bearish pattern. _______ UPDATE (Nov 4, 10:15 p.m. ET): The pop very slightly above the 1917.30 peak turned the short-term picture bullish, tied to a target at 1926.40. Here’s the pattern, which has already produced a near-perfect mechanical entry at x=1893.00 and could work again. ______ UPDATE (Nov 5, 9:06 p.m.): After nearly three months of range-bound slogging, December Gold has finally rallied to a tripwire that portends more upside to as high as 2250. I’ll have more to say about this in an update that will be out Sunday night, but for now we can ratchet up our bullish trading bias a skoch, using p=1950.80 as a minimum upside objective for the near term.
GCZ20 – December Gold (Last:1944.70)