The futures spent the entire week in a tight range that reflected mounting uncertainties not only about whether Trump will reverse Biden’s apparent victory, but how much more damage a resurgent Covid-19 will do to the economy. The reaction of stocks to vaccine news has become increasingly muted, since it is impossible to know at this point how much even a very effective vaccine would accelerate a recovery. Whatever the answer, it seems likely that even very good news will be the kind we are supposed to sell following eight months of bullish ‘rumors’. We are constrained from doing much of anything in this vehicle, however, unless it re-visits the green line (11,193) to trigger a ‘mechanical’ buy. If it does, my gut feeling is that the subsequent rally will struggle for a long time to reach D=12804 if it reaches it at all. ______ UPDATE (Nov 27): With Friday’s poke above p2=12.267, bulls have become an odds-on bet to achieve 12,804, although perhaps not with the reckless bravado we’ve gotten so used to over the years. They are now sharing the inflow of funny-money with small-cap stocks, a limitation that’s likely to slow their ascent. _______ UPDATE (Dec 3, 6:46 p.m.): Although I have higher targets outstanding, the stall at a 12,550 minor target warrants caution.
NQZ20 – Dec E-Mini Nasdaq (Last:12,491)