A rally to the green line would trigger a mechanical short using the unconventional rABC pattern shown. We can attempt to leverage it by buying puts if QQQ touches the line on Monday or Tuesday. For now, bid 0.80 for four Nov 27 272 puts, contingent on QQQ trading 292.62 or lower. There’s a lot of guesswork in that bid, but don’t pay up or jump the gun, since I will adjust it as warranted on Monday. We may also have an opportunity to turn the position into a riskless spread if we get filled on the puts and QQQ subsequently falls as expected. I am taking pains to minimize risk in order to provide new subscribers with a positive experience. _______ UPDATE (Nov 16, 10:12 a.m. ET): The puts are getting crushed. I’ll recommend a 0.70 bid, which will be closer to fair value if the stock reaches my 292.57 target. It has gotten as high as 292.45. If you bought ’em already, offer half for 1.60 gtc. I tried — unsuccessfully, it would seem — to emphasize that you shouldn’t jump the gun on this trade. There is no urgency and no need to pay up. Every penny counts, since the deck is stacked hugely against retail customers making directional bets with naked options. ______ UPDATE (Nov 16, 7:34 p.m.): We hold four Nov 27 272 puts for an average 0.70, based on reports in the chat room. Kiss your $280 good-bye and avert your eyes for a few days. We are speculating against one of the most powerfully irrational rallies ever.
QQQ – Nasdaq ETF (Last:293.20)