DIA – Dow Industrials ETF (Last:303.99)

Although DIA has yet to surpass a longstanding target at 304.07 after a month of trying, it hasn’t retreated much either. Subscribers bought puts for a cheap speculation last week nonetheless — not because a plunge is certain, but because the betting odds are better than they’ve been for a while. Indeed, the Hidden Pivot target is clear and compelling, and bulls may have gotten all the mileage they’re going to get from that old standby, ‘vaccine hopes’. However well the available vaccines work, it’s going to be a long slog back to steady economic growth, and many more small businesses, along with some large ones, are certain to die along the way. Investors are probably thinking that things can only get better in 2021, but that is not necessarily so. There is reason to doubt that the news environment, such as it is, will support a bullish stampede into the new year, and that is why we should own some puts. ______ UPDATE (Dec 28, 5:30 p.m. ET): The unruly little porker poked its snout slightly above 304.07, but there’s not much we can do about it, other than marvel at DIA’s bold effrontery