Friday’s psychotic leap stalled almost precisely at p=38,822 before reversing just as precipitously. This validates the pattern itself and its D=48,834 target, although we’ll need to see a decisive push above p to make more upside to D an odds-on bet. Another useful inference is that if and when bulls hit 48,834, a pullback from it is likely to occur with similar precision. In any event, the reversal would be speculatively tradeable with either a tight stop-loss or an rABC set-up on a lesser chart. The relapse to the green line as the week ended just missed triggering a ‘mechanical’ buy because the rally that preceded it failed, if only by a hair, to touch p=38,822. That said, my gut instinct is that any longs initiated at the green long will not be stopped out below ‘C’ before becoming at least moderately profitable. By ‘moderately’, I mean that I cannot guarantee it will return to p, where a partial profit could be taken. Here’s a comparable although not identical view of GBTC. _______ UPDATE (Feb 1, 9:42 p.m.): Friday’s crazed leap failed by a hair to hit the red line, a midpoint pivot at 38822. A trend failure in this vehicle is rare, and it has negated a ‘mechanical’ buy trigger that would otherwise have occurred on Sunday’s pullback to the green line (x=33816). The rally was impulsive nonetheless, having exceeded two external peaks on the daily chart. That’s bullish, but if I am going to suggest any bottom-fishing it will be based on a legit ‘mechanical’ setup that is nowhere in sight at the moment. _______ UPDATE (Feb 4, 9:32 p.m.): This time buyers got even close to the 38,822 red line without touching it, peaking at 38,737. If BRTI falls again to the green line at 33816, treat this as a ‘mechanical’ buy signal, stop 28,809. This is intended as a paper-trade unless you know how to set up a ‘camouflage’ entry to cut your initial exposure to under $500.
BRTI – CME Bitcoin Index (Last:33666)