The well-advertised target at 3938.25 has been in play since mid-November and should be considered highly reliable if you want to try shorting with a very tight stop-loss. It was not possible to ‘guarantee’ the target would be reached because it took quite a struggle for bulls to hoist the futures decisively above the midpoint Hidden Pivot at 3717.25. Now that ES is trading well above p2, however, the target should be considered a lock-up. This favorite pattern is characterized by a short, relatively quick ABC phase followed by a seemingly endless dirge along the C-D leg to D. It is particularly useful to us because the out-of-symmetry AB and CD legs tend to throw chartists who use 1-2-3 Gartley-type formations off the scent of a target that often works precisely. For our purposes, it can serve as a place to try shorting, even though I have higher targets outstanding in IWM, an ETF vehicle that tracks the Russell 20o0 small-caps, QQQ and NQ. _______ UPDATE (Feb 10, 8:27 p.m. EST): The recent high at 3928 missed my longstanding target by 10 points, or 0.2%. If the weakness that has ensued gets legs, look for it to continue down to at least 3879.00. The pattern can be used to short ES ‘mechanically’. As always, an easy move through D would portend still lower prices. Here’s the chart.
ESH21 – March E-Mini S&Ps (Last:3898.00)
