In retrospect, it was entirely predictable that Mr. Market would push this little scumsucker to within a split hair of my longstanding target at 3938.25 on a Friday afternoon, just ahead of a three-day weekend. The actual high was 3936.25, a shortfall of five hundredths of a percentage point. So what now? If you took a small short position as originally advised, don’t worry, you’re going to be just fine. But we will still have to sit and wait until Tuesday (!!) until options start trading again, and anything could happen between then and Sunday night, when index futures will open for a limited number of hours. All we can do is cross our fingers and hope stocks are still hovering near my targets have when the new, holiday-shortened week begins. That could provide the opportunity we’ve waited so patiently for to buy way-out-of-the-money put spreads in, for one, IWM, but also possibly DIA and QQQ. _______ UPDATE (Feb 15, 11:51 a.m. EST): At the moment, the futures are doing what in a normal world, in a bull market not driven by full-blown psychosis, would seem absolutely impossible — i.e., pushing above 3938.25 as though this solid-titanium Hidden Pivot did not exist. If the 234.82 rally target in IWM suffers the same fate, it will bring me closer to the conclusion that nothing short of a true black swan — i.e., an event that is unforeseeable and well nigh unimaginable — can stop an asset bubble fed by practically unlimited credit easing around the world. That said, I doubt the current push through 3938.25 will get very far. Price movement in markets disrupted by three-day holidays are always greedily opportunistic of thin supply/demand, so it doesn’t surprise me that the criminals who control these markets are using President’s Day to achieve what they could not have achieved during the regular session. _______UPDATE (Feb 16, 7:55 p.m.): Now that’s more like it: a so-far 45-point reversal off dubious highs achieved on low volume in the dead of night. Let’s see if the selling can get legs. ______ UPDATE (Feb 18, 9:34 p.m.): The buy-the-dipsters have kept the selloff from snowballing. If the downtrend doesn’t get rolling on Friday, they may need help from an exogenous shock on Sunday night to start next week on the offensive.
ESH21 – March E-Mini S&Ps (Last:3894.50)