Updates for this week have stepped back from the intraday charts, which encouraged one to imagine that every feint was significant in our quest to exploit The Mother of All Tops. While each whoop, dive and thrust may be contributing to this end, we needn’t punish ourselves by obsessing over price action on the hourly charts. But as I’ve noted in DIA, there is nothing reprehensible about betting on a major top, provided it is aligned with our technical runes. In this case, I’ll suggest buying puts if IWM pushes above 234. This ritual has been fruitless in recent months, and that’s why you shouldn’t go overboard taking odds on the 234.82 target. If your bet is small, plan on letting it expire worthless. But if you risk more, be aware that a two-day close above 236, or an intraday spike exceeding 239, would be sufficient reason to close out the position. And please, no questions or comments about this trade until such time as you’ve doubled out on half of your position. _____ UPDATE (Mar 8, 7:15 p.m. ET): As much as I’ve been itching to short this hoax at exactly 234.82, I am increasingly doubting that it has the moxie for the implied push to slightly above the old high at 230.32. This is a subjective feeling that comes from the weekly chart and the way the trampoline bounce from last week’s low has so far failed to continue into this week’s price bar. A fierce rally starting Tuesday or Wednesday could change this impression, but until such time as it happen, I’ll remain skeptical. Here’s the chart. ______ UPDATE (Mar 9, 4:46 p.m.): The trendline shown in this chart is guaranteed to display stopping power and should therefore take precedence over any Hidden Pivot resistances we might find nearby. It comes in at around 225.46, so we’ll price action there to gauge the power of the trend. Scalpers can short it with a ‘reverse ABC’ pattern on the 5-minute chart or less. ______ UPDATE (Mar 10, 5:10 p.m.): ‘Stopping power’ guaranteed by whom? you may have wondered. We sidestepped the maniacal leap on the opening bar, returning our focus to shorting at 234.82 but no lower, tightly stopped.
IWM – Russell 2000 ETF (Last:227.23)