Bitcoin is sitting exactly where it was in mid-February, unable to achieve a 72,148 target that has been in play since March 3. It has signaled two profitable ‘mechanical’ longs since then, but I am not recommending that you bid at the green line (50,318) if BRTI should revisit it a third time. That’s because cumulative weakness by then would probably be sufficient to demand a test of support at C=43,041. The midpoint pivot has been the scene of so much angst that a thrust to D any time soon is no longer a good bet, even if that target still rates even odds to be achieved. _______ UPDATE (May 10, 5:16 p.m.): Today’s nasty selloff tripped a conventional ‘short’ signal at 55,128 that is predicated on a downside target of 50,679. That is the midpoint Hidden Pivot of a bearish pattern on the daily chart that uses the 64,858 high on April 14 as a point ‘A’ high. _______ UPDATE (May 11, 10:55 p.m.): Crazy. If the rally exceeds 59,578, that would negate the bearish pattern noted above and its 50,679 target. However, it would take more than that — specifically, an uncorrected thrust exceeding April 16’s external peak at 62,162 — to fully recharge the bullish impulsiveness of the hourly chart. ______ UPDATE (May 13, 12:12 a.m.): I’ve been down on bitcoin recently — so much so that I recommended not touching this vehicle if it returned to the green line to signal a third ‘mechanical’ buying opportunity. It did, but because the plunge was caused entirely by news — Musk is backing away from energy-hungry blockchain money out of kindness toward the environment — I could almost buy it here. Almost, but not quite. The 72,148 rally target will remain viable as long as C=43,041 is not violated to the downside (as appears likely).
BRTI – CME Bitcoin Index (Last:50,753)