Bitcoin will likely need to fall below 30k and consolidate for at least a few more weeks before it can attempt a fresh start. Even so, a feint beneath the January low at 28,810 would set up an enticing rabc ‘buy’, using the 47,059 low recorded on April 30 as the point ‘a’ low of the trigger pattern. On the off-chance that it simply takes off without further consolidation, a close for two consecutive weeks above p=48,065 would be needed to allay my skepticism. Alternatively, and as noted here earlier, a pop above 51,556 would be persuasive as well, but any less should be regarded as mere noise. _______ UPDATE (Jun 5): I’ve lowered the bar to 45,837 to tell us when this vehicle is once again worthy of our close attention. That’s where the first significant ‘external’ peak lies in this chart. Alternatively, BRTI is on a ‘mechanical’ sell signal that implies more downside to 26,422 (480-minute, A=51,556 on 5/14). Here’s the picture.
BRTI – CME Bitcoin Index (Last:37,176)