Silver’s tiresome slog since December in a $6 range should have worn out bears by now, but truth to tell, bullish support has been irresolute, if not to say feeble. Bullion would be soaring these days if everyone were as certain as a thousand ‘experts’ and the news media that rampant inflation is coming. Do Powell and some other unlikely dissenting voices perhaps have it right when they say the worst has been discounted by stocks and other assets, and that reckless fiscal spending growth has peaked? From a technical standpoint, the only appealing trade on the immediate horizon is a lowball bid at 24.33, the ‘D’ target of the pattern shown (see inset). The strategy has been a non-starter so far, though, since the July contract has not even traded below p2=25.47. Reversals precisely from p2 are ‘supposed’ to exceed ‘C’, negating the patterns themselves. In this case, however, the sharp bounce we might have expected has failed to materialize, casting doubt on the likelihood of a powerful rally. On balance, I am moderately bullish, but also bored half to death. My wake-up alert is at 27.33, just above an external peak of no particular distinction.
SIN21 – July Silver (Last:26.19)