Gold’s price action lately has grown too defiant of logic and even rationality to merit diligent attention. The futures got crushed for a week in mid-June, but now sellers can’t even push it down to a minor ‘D’ correction target. Instead, the August contract rallied on Friday, presumably gratuitously, to within an inch of a level that would negate the bearish pattern. I’ve set an alert at 1826.50, a tick above an external peak recorded June 16 on the way down. That’s where the bullish case would become, if not compelling, then at least very faintly appealing. We might also look to get short using a ‘reverse ABC’ set-up if the futures make it up into the range 1810-1820. My point ‘a’ for the trigger pattern would be 1776.30, equal to a peak recorded at 10:00 a.m . June 29 on the hourly chart. (For a bigger picture that is bearish short-term but bullish long-term, check out the current commentary, So Maybe Gold Actually Does Suck.) ______ UPDATE (Jul 6, 5:27 p.m.): The short trade suggested worked perfectly and generated a relatively quick, easy profit of around $2600 on four lots. A few subscribers reported getting aboard, some by interpolating with other gold vehicles, and covering at the red line as suggested.
GCQ21 – August Gold (Last:1797.00)