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GCQ21 – August Gold (Last:1829.60)

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A seemingly modest rally target at 1858.60 is still  viable, although the August futures seem in no great hurry to get there.  The ‘reverse ABC’ pattern shown in the chart would trigger a long if last week’s weakness continues down to x=1777.20. However, I have little enthusiasm for gold at the moment and would therefore suggest using the micro-contract if you are uncomfortable with the implied $11,000 of entry risk tied to the full-size contract. At least half the position should be exited if the futures rally from the entry price to the red line (p= 1804.40).  I rate the trade a ‘6.6’ — worth a try, especially if you can execute it via a much smaller rABC pattern capable of reducing initial risk by perhaps 95%. ______ UPDATE (Jul 29, 3:31 p.m.): Today’s encouraging upthrust has shifted my crosshairs cautiously higher, to the 1912.50 target of this reverse pattern. That’s $54 above the old target, and it would become an even-odds bet following a two-day close above 1831,30, or an intraday stab exceeding 1850.


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