A well-advertised rally target at 4113.75 served us well last week, providing the rationale for long and short positions posted in the chat room that could have produced profits of $10,000 or more for subscribers who followed my simple instructions. (Nearly all of them included charts.) For all its histrionics, the September contract never closed above the target, although it did reach an intraday high of 4422.50 on Thursday. That could be the Mother of All Tops as far as we know, although I doubt it. For now, we can use the tepidly bullish pattern in the chart to manage our expectations as the new week begins. D=4439.75 can serve as a minimum upside target, although I wouldn’t suggest trying to extract any more ‘mechanical’ ‘buys’ from this pattern. For the record, it has yet to give a bad signal, implying we can look forward to shorting at ‘D’ if and when it is reached. This would likely be by way of an rABC pattern, so stay tuned to the chat room if you care. _______ UPDATE (Aug 2, 5:32 p.m.): I’d like to see a close above last week’s highs and a pop that seems to jettison the 4413.75 resistance. That’s what I think it would take for Mr. Market to set the hook. The flat top created by the last seven sessions looks too wishy-washy to have sucked in bulls with the kind of trap that brings drama. Neither has it given bears relief nor the kind of acute pain that’s needed to crush the last of them in this minor bull cycle. _____ UPDATE (9:05 p.m.): I’m not so sure we’re going to see that last head-fake above my prospective major top at ES 4413.75. Lockdown 2.0 is coming, and it’s going to finish off all of the small businesses that survived the first lockdown. The fact that DaBoyz are still able to distribute into intraday rallies shows that bears have been frightened to death. Shorts at these levels look like free money to me, and a fleeting head-fake would only make the bet look even better. Anyone who can’t smell Lockdown 2.0 coming in a big way needs to read this piece of agitprop from the Washington Post. ________ UPDATE (Aug 3, 4:17 p.m.): This gas bag will continue to diddle the 4413.75 pivot until the last bear has been ground down to corn meal. The longer this tedium continues, probably the greater the likelihood that an acutely painful head-fake will be needed. The logical alternative for a plunge with no bears aboard would be that old standby, the Sunday night surprise. ______ UPDATE (Aug 5, 6:07 p.m.): The closing bar was too short-squeezy for me to remain in denial. Here’s a new pattern with a very bullish rally target at 4528.00, lest I become too fond of 4413.75 to give it up. Even so, I will not grant bulls my wholehearted benefit of the doubt until I see how they handle resistance at p=4446.50, my minimum upside projection for the near term.
ESU21 – Sep E-Mini S&P (Last:4419.00)