ESZ21 – December E-Mini S&P (Last:4392.25)

I sense a melt-up is coming, and soon. Bulls face just one significant obstacle in their quest for new all-time highs: the 4472.00 ‘external’ peak recorded on September 27.  Once above it, the old record at 4529 would turn magnetic, drawing the futures higher without seriously taxing buyers; short-covering bears would do all the work. Alternatively, a moderate fall could tell us whether this is likely. Specifically, if sellers drive ES down to the 4314.50 midpoint support of this pattern, an easy penetration would suggest bears are in charge, at least for the time being.  It could also set up an enticing bottom-fishing opportunity, since we would be using a very tight stop-loss that anticipated a turn from 4314.50 exactly, give or take no more than a point or two. _____ UPDATE (Oct 11, 8:45 p.m.): So far it looks more like a nascent meltdown. Price action is too nutty in any event to be worthy of our serious attention or even speculation at the moment. _______ UPDATE (Oct 14, 7:54 a.m.): Apologies for the belated update, since I emphasized in commentary that went out Sunday night that this ostensible ‘bear rally’ is going to new all-time highs. As I also mentioned, DaSleazeballs running this carnival midway show are accomplishing this with short-squeezes in the dead of night, when there is almost no selling pressure. This allows a ‘fake’ rally to keep on chugging while using up almost no bullish buying power. String together enough phony rallies that surpass previous peaks with stealth rather than power, and eventually you are talking about the real thing, a melt-up.