The futures have rolled down from a logical spot, a secondary Hidden Pivot at 4802.25 tied to our bullish lodestar at 4907.25. I’ve added a smaller ‘reverse’ pattern with a target at 4663.00 so that we can gauge the strength of correction and exploit it ‘mechanically’ for trading purposes. It tripped a short at 4756.50 on Friday, but I did not advise taking the trade ahead of the long weekend. Sliding ‘a’ up to 4743.25 (12/16) produces a correction target as low as 4576.75, but we’ll be better able to judge its validity and usefulness once we’ve seen how sellers handle the respective midpoint supports at 4731.25 and 4688.25. ______ UPDATE (Jan 3, 9:19): Although sellers were spent on the opening bar, DaBoyz failed to take advantage. Even so, it is bullish that the downward spike that began the session couldn’t even reach the midpoint Hidden Pivot support at 4731.25. _______ UPDATE (Jan 5, 8:46 p.m.): Very suspicious. The futures dove today after stopping out a hypothetical short last week from p2=4802.25 by a hair. ‘Matt’s Curse’ is in effect, so we shouldn’t be surprised if the downtrend accelerates into week’s end. _______ UPDATE (Jan 6, 7:57 p.m.): ‘Matt’s Curse’ implies that very sharp reversals become more likely when they begin precisely at the p2 secondary pivot. In this case, the trend did in fact fail just a hair from p2=4803.75 of the bullish ABCD pattern shown, and we should therefore be prepared to see sellers take out the pattern’s point ‘C’ low at 4485.75. I have drawn in a secondary ‘reverse’ pattern for trading purposes — in this case, a potential ‘mechanical’ short on a rally touching x=4752.50,;or a bottom-fishing attempt at d=4585.25.
ESH22 – March E-MIni S&P (Last:4703.00)
