I still expect the futures to fall to the ‘D’ target at 158^14 before the correction ends. That’s because the downtrend’s first contact with p=160^01 crushed the support. The implication is that a rally to x=160^26 would trigger a ‘mechanical’ short with the potential to achieve ‘D’. I am not advising the trade, however, unless you know how to initiate it with a ‘camouflage’ set-up that would reduce the theoretical entry risk per contract to no more than about six ticks. Alternatively, if the bounce stops out C=161^19 of the corrective pattern, that would be bullish for T-bonds. _______ UPDATE (Jan 3, 9:55 p.m. EST): We bought into what turned out to be an avalanche, suffering a loss of about $220 per contract before stopping out. The futures went significantly lower thereafter — no surprise, given the way they’d turned our robust-looking Hidden Pivot support into chop suey. I’m tempted to try again, assuming the futures fall into a void that will produce maximum discomfort at around 156^04. Go for it only if you’ve attended enough Wednesday tutorial sessions to understand what I’m talking about. _______ UPDATE (Jan 5, 8:55 p.m.): The 156^05 ‘magic number’ flagged above caught the low within a single tick. Depending on what kind of set-up you used, the trade has gone on to produce a profit of as much as $1700 on four contracts with the futures currently trading at their high since bottoming at 115^05. If you still hold a fractional position, use D=156^21 as a price objective, implementing a trailing stop if and when it’s hit. _______ UPDATE (Jan 6, 7:59 p.m.): The bounce went as high as 156^20, a single tick below where I’d suggested implementing a trailing stop. That’s close enough to have kept you out of trouble and gotten you out of T-Bonds with a nice profit.
USH22 – March T-Bonds (Last:156^05)