I’ve set a high bar at 4403.70 to signal the possible end of a bear market that began in January, when the August contract hit a record 5700.  Otherwise, we should expect the weakness to continue at least until the 3793.40 target shown in the inset is achieved. There are two more Hidden Pivot supports you should be aware of, since either is capable of reversing the trend at least temporarily:  3822.70, the target of a smaller pattern that was featured here last week; and 3603.40, a worst-case projection derived from sliding ‘A’ up to the 5513.00 ‘marquee’ high recorded on March 2. Of the three possibilities, I favor 3793.40, which is why I have boldfaced it. The other two will work well for careful bottom fishing, however. _______ UPDATE (Aug 2, 3:08 p.m.): Gold spent the entire week trading inside the previous week’s range, so there is no change in my forecast. ______ UPDATE (Aug 3, 12:35 p.m. EDT): The action has shifted to the December contract, so I will start tracking it in this update. The pattern shown in this chart suggests it is headed down to 3876.10, a back-up-the-truck number. The pattern is too obvious to work precisely, but it is sufficiently compelling for us to infer that a tradeable upturn is very likely to occur at or very near ‘D’.  Because the flirtation with p=4169.60 has been a vague, meandering affair rather than the impalement we look for, there can be no guarantees that D will be reached. If the futures are in the process of reversing from p2=4022.90, they will signal it definitively with a move above two ‘external’ peaks, the second of which lies at 4298.60 (June 21).