$ESU25 – Sep E-Mini S&Ps (Last:7683.00)

Bears have struggled so hard to pull stocks lower that the 7437.00 downside target shown has become a fixture in these weekly updates. (Please note: 7506.00 is the equivalent target for the December contract.)   Since the chimps’ simian brains can only process one theme at a time, they’ve apparently settled on crude’s capricious ups and downs, rather than the Fed’s obscure emanations, as the sole reason to move stocks higher or lower on a given day. The pattern itself offers no guarantee that the target will be reached, since the Hidden Pivot midpoint support has not exactly been schmeissed by brutal selling. Bears have in fact been quite timid, perhaps out of wariness that Warsh could hold rates steady instead of raising them by 25% basis points as everyone seems to expect. That would touch off a quite vicious short-squeeze guaranteed to push ES into new-record territory. As far as I’m concerned, that would be yet another head-fake in a topping process that must end weeks before the feel-good MAGA era deep-sixes in November.