GCZ26 – December Gold (Last:4320.50)

With the futures perched on a shaky ledge and interest rates spiraling higher, the bearish case for gold seems almost too pat to take seriously. Accordingly, I’ve drawn a bullish pattern that implies the next big move will be back up to the $5000 level (x=4954.30). I expect a false breakdown first that would relocate the pattern’s point ‘C’ low somewhat beneath the current 4273, but we’ll make the adjustment when it becomes necessary. Alternatively, my worst case for the near term would be slippage over the next two weeks to 4173, a voodoo number. A cautious outlook is warranted in any event because of December Gold’s narrow failure ten days ago to trigger a conventional ‘buy’ at the green line, x=4436.60.