Rates on the Ten-Year Note broke out on Friday to a multiyear high at 4.81%, presumably on their way up to the 5.09% target shown in the chart. The good news is that that’s probably as high as they are likely to rise over the next few months. The bad news is that only a severe economic downturn could conceivably keep them from rising any further. The wild card would be a global outbreak of peace and good feelings amidst growing despair that Trump and Iran’s mullahs can come to terms. Hormuz should become less of a concern in any case, since ample quantities of oil appear to be getting to buyers despite Iran’s blockade. Also, it’s possible that the increasingly stringent economic sanctions will finally bring Iran around.