Rick Ackerman

The December contract will remain a bull trade at least until the 4760.00 target is reached, probably by no later than Wednesday. Judged on the basis of the pattern shown, and on the unsustainable trajectory of the rally leg begun three weeks ago, the Hidden Pivot target would seem to be an ideal spot to produce a major top. It will be short-able in any case, but we shouldn't get emotionally invested in the notion that we've caught THE top. It will suffice to profit from the expected pullback, and to leave ourselves a small short position for a swing at the fences. Until then, the best way to get aboard with risk drastically minimized is to use 'mechanical' set-ups on the hourly chart or less. Stay close to the chat room and keep 'Notifications' turned on in your account dashboard if you want to be closely apprised. ______ UPDATE (Nov 10, 1:09 a.m.): I posted this chart in the chat room about four hours ago in response to a subscriber's trading query. The pattern and my comments remain viable and were as follows:  "Your pattern is fine, but the optimal entry point was at p=4667. 50 when it was first hit at 11:15 a.m. The reversal occurred exactly at the midpoint pivot, and any type of camouflage set-up would have worked to get you long with very little risk. p2=4659.00 is the next place you could attempt to bottom-fish. But p has been sufficiently battered to suggest ES wants to fall to 4650.50. The precise upturn from p implies that there will be an equally precise reversal at D." I note further that ES has since followed one of our tongue-in-cheek rules -- i.e., that all trends reverse at p2 in all time frames, all the time and in

A two-day thrust blew past the 1805.70 midpoint pivot (see inset) with such ease that more upside to the 1852.9o target would seem to be all but assured. This is gold, however, and we've become used to disappointment, if not inured to it, so let's not count our chickens quite yet. A pullback to the green line (1782.10) on Monday or Tuesday, however unlikely, should be bought 'mechanically', albeit on a chart of much smaller degree than the one shown. If buyers handle D=1852.90 with unwonted brio after having reached it straightaway, that would be the most bullish sign we've had in this vehicle in a very long while. _____ UPDATE (Nov 10, 10:56 p.m.): A fist-pump through 1852.90 kept bulls on the offensive, but there are some daunting hurdles just ahead. Use the 1916.90 target shown in this chart as a minimum upside target for now, but let's hold the hubris until buyers hoist this tonnage above 'Annapurna'.

Unlike gold, silver did not finish the week with a showy thrust. However, since the former's move was decisively bullish on the intraday charts, we'll give all bullion vehicles the benefit of the doubt for now. Use the 26.48 target shown as an upside objective, but be careful near p2=25.21, since secondary pivots can be a show-stopper for under-powered rallies. The 'reverse' pattern I've drawn should work for 'mechanical' set-ups, implying that a pullback to x=22.68 would be a 'buy', stop 21.40.  Theoretical risk on entry is $6400 per contract, so the trade is suggested only for those who can cut it down to perhaps $300 with a 'camouflage' set-up on the very lesser charts. _____ UPDATE (Nov 10, 11:04 p.m.): A fearsome spike pushed the futures to within less than half a penny of the 25.21 Hidden Pivot I'd flagged as a possible danger spot. Some subscribers reported using the 60-cent pullback that followed to leverage short positions initiated at the top.  If and when a new burst of energy trashes p2, we can train our sights on the 26.48 target given above.

I'd expected AAPL to struggle last week, but the rally was more labored and modest than I'd imagined. We'll use the 153.86 target shown as a minimum upside objective for now, since the reverse pattern from which it is derived has worked well so far, nicely catching reversal points in both directions.  It is exhausted for purposes of 'mechanical' set-ups, but you could put in a 'mechanical' stink bid at p=146.07 nonetheless, using a stop-loss at 143.53. You can also short 153.68 using the tightest stop-loss you can abide. This post returns AAPL to the core list of touts that appear on this page regularly. It has replaced IWM. ______ UPDATE (Nov 11, 11:09 p.m.):  The trend failure 69 cents shy of my 153.86 target is not a healthy sign.  Most immediately, more slippage to at least D=145.95 looks very likely. Here's the chart, which shows how sellers trounced p=149.19 on the way down.

Who could have predicted that a microchip shortage would threaten to seriously impair the global auto industry? And yet, here we are: assembly plants are unable to ship enough cars to meet demand, and buyers are facing six-month delays and steeply rising prices. This has pushed used-car prices beyond the reach of those who can't afford showroom new. We sense that the problem could be worse than the industry is letting on because "experts" are saying bottlenecks could persist until the end of 2023. Whom do they think they are kidding? The global economy is so screwed up right now that even a team of MIT eggheads using a supercomputer and petabytes of economic data couldn't predict where interest rates will be in 30 days, let alone in two years. To say the chip shortage might drag on for a couple more years is to all but concede that it's likely to persist indefinitely (sort of like the Fed telling us they might consider tightening "next year"). Rosary Bead Shortage The shortages that have cropped up so far have taught us that predicting what will be in short supply next takes imagination. Bicycles, surfboards, certain prescription drugs, ships and shipping containers, workers in many sectors, including construction, trucking, retail, restaurant, hotel and manufacturing -- all are in critically short supply at the moment. They are also economically tied, often in obscure ways, meaning that a shortage of pasta could eventually affect the supply and demand for accordions, Chianti and Rosary beads. It has also put consumers on high alert, ready to hoard household items a nanosecond after the mere rumor of a shortage hits the blogosphere.  It is predictable that there will be food scares this winter and that they will get the kind of attention that will make us

It took all of two days for this jackhammer to punch a hole in what had looked like concrete at 4584. That's a  formerly important Hidden Pivot, and it served us well as a minimum upside target for the last 240 points. Now, the ease with which buyers have lifted the futures above it suggests that more upside to at least 4682.50 awaits.  This number will be shortable, even if quietly advertised in some circles, but we shouldn't count too heavily on it to magically end the bull market. The next target above it would be 4760.00, which comes from sliding 'A' down a step. That pattern yields a secondary pivot (p2) at 4635.00 where we could attempt to scalp a short using a forgiving 'camouflage' set-up. ______ UPDATE (Nov 4, 11:15 p.m. ET): We long ago ceased to be surprised when our most ambitious rally targets were achieved, but the speed at which this has been occurring in recent months has grown increasingly unsettling.  You can still use my 4682.50 target to try shorting, but I'd suggest this only for Pivoteers who know how to reduce the risk to small change using a 'camouflage' set-up.

A strong close last week might have left me feeling less, um, disgusted with gold. Alas, the December contract took a $30 dive on Friday, and although it recovered some of it by the bell, the bounce wasn't strong enough to generate much enthusiasm  for the week ahead. For now I'll suggest using the bearish pattern shown in the chart (inset). It has yet to offer up any 'mechanical' shorting opportunities enroute to the 1633.50 target, so anything we do will probably have to come from the lesser charts. It's bound to be a bumpy ride, since bears have not exactly been knocking 'em dead either in recent months.

Silver had looked like a good bet to negate the bearish pattern shown last week with a push above C=24.95, but buyers couldn't muster the extra ounce of lift it would have taken to succeed. Instead, they ended on a weak note, albeit less beaten up than gold. There's not much to say at the moment, but we should set a high bar before allowing ourselves to get excited over the next rally, however it plays out. In the meantime, use p=22.65 as a minimum downside target. Please note that I am not suggesting a buy there, since that would not be a legitimate 'mechanical' set-up.

Bitcoin continued to idle as it turned midpoint resistance at 59,302 into a launching platform for a shot at 89,780. We are unlikely to see the severe pullback required to set up a 'mechanical' buy of daily-chart degree, so any attempt to get aboard would be a labor-intensive project on the lesser charts. Please nudge me in the trading room if you have an entry set-up you'd like vetted. In the meantime, you can use p2=74,541 as a minimum upside projection for the near term. _____ UPDATE (Nov 10, 1:16 a.m.): The glue sniffers are back, allowing bitcoin's shark-tank sponsors to waft an effectively bidless Bertie as high as 68,510. It's not as though the 89,780 target was ever in doubt. _______ UPDATE (Nov 11, 11:22 p.m.): Today's hellish plunge did only slight damage to the bullish big picture, although it did create a robust impulse leg on the hourly chart. Here's a pattern obscure enough to work nicely. Use it with confidence for 'mechanical' shorting or bottom-fishing at p2 and/or D.