Rick Ackerman

I'd expected AAPL to struggle last week, but the rally was more labored and modest than I'd imagined. We'll use the 153.86 target shown as a minimum upside objective for now, since the reverse pattern from which it is derived has worked well so far, nicely catching reversal points in both directions.  It is exhausted for purposes of 'mechanical' set-ups, but you could put in a 'mechanical' stink bid at p=146.07 nonetheless, using a stop-loss at 143.53. You can also short 153.68 using the tightest stop-loss you can abide. This post returns AAPL to the core list of touts that appear on this page regularly. It has replaced IWM. ______ UPDATE (Nov 11, 11:09 p.m.):  The trend failure 69 cents shy of my 153.86 target is not a healthy sign.  Most immediately, more slippage to at least D=145.95 looks very likely. Here's the chart, which shows how sellers trounced p=149.19 on the way down.

Who could have predicted that a microchip shortage would threaten to seriously impair the global auto industry? And yet, here we are: assembly plants are unable to ship enough cars to meet demand, and buyers are facing six-month delays and steeply rising prices. This has pushed used-car prices beyond the reach of those who can't afford showroom new. We sense that the problem could be worse than the industry is letting on because "experts" are saying bottlenecks could persist until the end of 2023. Whom do they think they are kidding? The global economy is so screwed up right now that even a team of MIT eggheads using a supercomputer and petabytes of economic data couldn't predict where interest rates will be in 30 days, let alone in two years. To say the chip shortage might drag on for a couple more years is to all but concede that it's likely to persist indefinitely (sort of like the Fed telling us they might consider tightening "next year"). Rosary Bead Shortage The shortages that have cropped up so far have taught us that predicting what will be in short supply next takes imagination. Bicycles, surfboards, certain prescription drugs, ships and shipping containers, workers in many sectors, including construction, trucking, retail, restaurant, hotel and manufacturing -- all are in critically short supply at the moment. They are also economically tied, often in obscure ways, meaning that a shortage of pasta could eventually affect the supply and demand for accordions, Chianti and Rosary beads. It has also put consumers on high alert, ready to hoard household items a nanosecond after the mere rumor of a shortage hits the blogosphere.  It is predictable that there will be food scares this winter and that they will get the kind of attention that will make us

It took all of two days for this jackhammer to punch a hole in what had looked like concrete at 4584. That's a  formerly important Hidden Pivot, and it served us well as a minimum upside target for the last 240 points. Now, the ease with which buyers have lifted the futures above it suggests that more upside to at least 4682.50 awaits.  This number will be shortable, even if quietly advertised in some circles, but we shouldn't count too heavily on it to magically end the bull market. The next target above it would be 4760.00, which comes from sliding 'A' down a step. That pattern yields a secondary pivot (p2) at 4635.00 where we could attempt to scalp a short using a forgiving 'camouflage' set-up. ______ UPDATE (Nov 4, 11:15 p.m. ET): We long ago ceased to be surprised when our most ambitious rally targets were achieved, but the speed at which this has been occurring in recent months has grown increasingly unsettling.  You can still use my 4682.50 target to try shorting, but I'd suggest this only for Pivoteers who know how to reduce the risk to small change using a 'camouflage' set-up.

A strong close last week might have left me feeling less, um, disgusted with gold. Alas, the December contract took a $30 dive on Friday, and although it recovered some of it by the bell, the bounce wasn't strong enough to generate much enthusiasm  for the week ahead. For now I'll suggest using the bearish pattern shown in the chart (inset). It has yet to offer up any 'mechanical' shorting opportunities enroute to the 1633.50 target, so anything we do will probably have to come from the lesser charts. It's bound to be a bumpy ride, since bears have not exactly been knocking 'em dead either in recent months.

Silver had looked like a good bet to negate the bearish pattern shown last week with a push above C=24.95, but buyers couldn't muster the extra ounce of lift it would have taken to succeed. Instead, they ended on a weak note, albeit less beaten up than gold. There's not much to say at the moment, but we should set a high bar before allowing ourselves to get excited over the next rally, however it plays out. In the meantime, use p=22.65 as a minimum downside target. Please note that I am not suggesting a buy there, since that would not be a legitimate 'mechanical' set-up.

Bitcoin continued to idle as it turned midpoint resistance at 59,302 into a launching platform for a shot at 89,780. We are unlikely to see the severe pullback required to set up a 'mechanical' buy of daily-chart degree, so any attempt to get aboard would be a labor-intensive project on the lesser charts. Please nudge me in the trading room if you have an entry set-up you'd like vetted. In the meantime, you can use p2=74,541 as a minimum upside projection for the near term. _____ UPDATE (Nov 10, 1:16 a.m.): The glue sniffers are back, allowing bitcoin's shark-tank sponsors to waft an effectively bidless Bertie as high as 68,510. It's not as though the 89,780 target was ever in doubt. _______ UPDATE (Nov 11, 11:22 p.m.): Today's hellish plunge did only slight damage to the bullish big picture, although it did create a robust impulse leg on the hourly chart. Here's a pattern obscure enough to work nicely. Use it with confidence for 'mechanical' shorting or bottom-fishing at p2 and/or D.

The 233. 35 rally target we've been using implies that IWM is about to break out of a wedge that has been building torque since January. Another inch would have done it last week, but buyers merely kissed the upper line without piercing it.  Even if they should throttle back this week and IWM falls by ten points, it would not alter the target nor the pattern's bullishness. But the rally will need to happen soon, since the sideways scuddle since August has pushed stochastic indicators to within spitting distance of the overbought zone. _______ UPDATE (Nov 1, 10:59 p.m.): It's official! The chimps have swung back to 'value stocks', lazily recycling a tired old idea that has the fashion sizzle of a 1970s necktie.  The breakout targets a minimum 236.80, based on the conservative pattern shown in this chart.  If buyers blow past it, shift your sights to p2=240.72, or possibly even D=251.62. Both Hidden Pivots are derived from sliding the point 'A' low down to  January's  190.94 bottom. _______ UPDATE (Nov 4, 11:30): IWM topped less than one-tenth of a percent from my 240.72 target today, but because no one even mentioned it in the chat room, the symbol will be replaced by the vote-getting AAPL next week on the permanent list of touts.

AAPL partly recouped heavy overnight losses so effortlessly on Friday that one can barely discern a swoon on the daily chart. Every selloff for the last nearly 13 years has turned out to have been a buying opportunity, so why should this one be any different? Punk earnings, or even the lowering of expectations, haven't had much impact on the stock, other than to shake out widows and pensioners. Look for AAPL to spend the early part of the week digesting Thursday's uninspiring report before making a run for the all-time high at 157.26 recorded on September 7.

Since January, the dollar has made more headway than anyone might have imagined against the Fed's heroic efforts to trash it.  Even so, the rally has yet to pass a single 'external' peak of significance on the daily chart. The nearest lies at 94.74,  less than a point above, and getting past it will be crucial to the long-term outlook -- not just for the buck, but for gold and silver as well. If and when that happens, it will open a path to at least 98, where another peak recorded 16 months ago will test the rally's mettle.  For now, let's set a screen alert at 94.75 to announce the breakout. It looks likely, though not quite a done deal. _______ UPDATE (Nov 4, 11:42 p.m.): With the dollar about to break out, putting a nasty new squeeze on stubborn bears, let's raise our sights to the 94.86 target shown in this chart. _______ UPDATE (Nov 10, 1:19 a.m.): The rally detumesced after having gone no higher on Friday than 94.60. The 94.86 target remains viable nonetheless as a minimum upside objective for the near term. _______ UPDATE (Nov 11, 9:31 p.m.): If inflation is about to devour us, the dollar doesn't seem to know it. Use the 95.52 target shown in this chart a a minimum upside target for the moment; it is certain to be reached. If the rally impales it, the next 'D' lies at 95.89,  abased on an 'A' low to the left of the one shown. An easy move through it would suggest the inflation-bet unwind is about to come under even greater pressure. ______ UPDATE (Nov 16, 5:47 p.m.): The uptrend poked slightly above 95.89 -- no easy feat, considering it is the 'D' target of two bullish patterns. A two-day close above it