Rick Ackerman

Have you ever gotten long or short with bullseye precision, only to exit with a small profit just ahead of the big move you’d expected? With hindsight, the chart glares at you with two or three hellacious bars where all the big money was made. Relax, it’s not you. In this lesson we pondered the reason why almost NO ONE made money on those wickedly steep price bars. In addition, we looked at the usual gallimaufry of mechanical, camouflage and rABC set-ups, advancing the state of the art by yet a couple more useful steps.

This morning's lunatic leap has sufficiently exceeded the 85.01 target shown in the inset to imply that significantly higher prices are coming. Here's a chart that shows a bigger-picture objective at 105.08. I'd need to see a more decisive move past p=83.41 and a few consecutive closes above it to be sure, but for the time being we can use p2=94.25 as a minimum upside objective. With pump prices already above $5/gallon in some places, this will not be good news for the transportation sector and for the U.S. economy in general. No one knows what's in the Democrats' 'stimulus' bill (that is very nearly true), but we can only hope there will be gas coupons for every decent American who owns an automobile. ______ UPDATE (Oct 27, 9:02): I jumped the gun with the 105.08 target, since this one at 91.51 would need to be fulfilled first. As the chart shows, 'mechanical' set-ups can be used to get long on a pullback to either p or x. Ask in the chat room if you are unsure of exactly how to do this. The buy at 65.84 on July 23 was about as 'textbook' as these opportunities get. _______ UPDATE (Nov 4, 11:54 p.m.): Crude's usual nuttiness turned psychotic, but this had only a small impact on my technical outlook. You can lower the first rally target to 88.96 while leaving the bigger-pattern targets unchanged. They are not a done deal. ______ UPDATE (Nov 10, 11:36 p.m.): If the futures remain weak, use this pattern to bottom-fish at D=79.80 with a very tight 'camo' stop. _______ UPDATE (Nov 11, 9:52 a.m.): Crude has flunked the weakness test this morning, unable to achieve downside D=79.80. The target remains valid but is less likely to be hit. If you have the opportunity to use

Bulls made encouraging progress last week with a spike on Friday above two prior peaks -- an 'internal' and an 'external, the minimum required to generate an impulsive leg. This will shorten the odds of a move to the upper line of a channel I'd drawn last week. It comes in at around 1864 and has a downward slope of about 35 cents per day. When the week began, my bias was mildly bearish, but this latest price action has tipped me bullish, That's notwithstanding the fact that gold closed well off the high. That was to be expected, since the high occurred a hair below the 'D' target, on the daily chart, of A= 1745.40 (10/6).  Sliding 'A' down to 9/29's 1721.10 low yields a new rally target at 1841.10. If reached that would be quite bullish, since it implies a breakout above three imposing peaks near 1836 recorded over the summer. Keep an eye on price action at p2=1820.90, since a stall there, precisely, could be prelude to a sharp reversal per 'Matt's Curse'. In the meantime, a pullback to x=1780.50 would trip a 'mechanical' buy signal, stop 1760.20. With $8000 initial risk on four lots, this one is recommended only to those who know how to cut the risk by as much as 95% with a 'camouflage' set-up. _______ UPDATE (Oct 25, 5:10 p.m.): I've made a slight correction in the chart that brings our target down a smidgen to 1840.30, with corresponding changes in x, p and p2.  I've done so because the pattern is gnarly enough to work very precisely -- not only for 'mechanical' bids, but for shorting at a potential top. The trendline noted above has been included. Here's the new chart.

AAPL remains on autopilot for a finishing stroke to at least 151.02, a target that has been theoretically in play since October 4. Apple shares were trading for around $141 then, about 7% below the recent high. The rally's progress had been slow until a week ago, when back-to-back short-squeeze rallies did what mere bullish buying could never have accomplished. The artificially induced buying spasm penetrated deeply into layers of supply deposited over the summer.  This is how the chimps who make their living going all-in with clients' money work, lifting their offers when short-squeeze opportunities are at their ripest.  Realize that it is the Titantc they are hoisting -- the biggest company in the world, with a capitalization of $2.5 trillion. But the effort is worth it, since keeping just this one stock on an upward path has helped sustain the illusion of health in a thousand pension funds, including some of the very biggest. Looking just ahead, I'll recommend reversing long positions at 151.02 with the purchase of a few put options. This is a speculative bet, so risk no more than you could comfortably lose on a a 20-to-1 horse. Concerning the supply zone from last summer, although AAPL has pushed through this landfill easily with its recent show of bravado, the stock could find itself bogged down there for months once it has completed the run-up to 151.02. Caveat emptor. ______ UPDATE (Oct 26, 8:45 p.m. ET): The stock fell nearly $2 after topping 18 cents (0.18%)  from the 151.02 target.  If you bought any put spreads as I advised in the chat room, please let me know so that I can determine whether to establish a tracking position. ______ UPDATE (Oct 28, 8:33 p.m.): AAPL's lunatic leap through 151.02 was of course bullish and guarantees

Got guts? Bertie would become a fetching 'mechanical' buy if last week's pullback continues to the red line (p=59,302). My immediate objective thereupon would be p=74,541, with a shot at D=89,780, That last number seems like an excellent prospect to deliver a blow-off top in this vehicle. I will track the trade just to keep the record up-to-date. (I note that only one buy recommendation has gotten stopped out since Rick's Picks began touting bitcoin more than a year ago.)  The stop-loss on the 'mechanical' trade would be at exactly $49,143, implying entry risk of a tad more than $10,000 per unit. We can attempt to whittle it down to perhaps $300-$700 using a 'camouflage' trigger, but that will be possible only in real time. A keen show of interest in the chat room would be needed to enlist my help, since this project could become labor-intensive. _______ UPDATE (Oct 26, 9:12 p.m.): I'll suggest backing away from the red line and putting your bid down at x=44,063, the green line. That is how the conventional 'mechanical' trade is typically set-up, and it's less risky than a red-line entry. If Bertie seems reluctant to come all the way down, we'll deal with that when the time comes. We may attempt another type of entry altogether -- one that wouldn't require so sharp a pullback -- so stay close to the chat room and let me know of your interest if you seek guidance.

The performance of Apple shares has been a reliable harbinger of where greed and hubris would take this seemingly invincible bull market next. Apple is the biggest-cap stock of them all, worth $2.5 trillion, and it has increasingly become a sure thing for institutional investors since bottoming a generation ago below $5. With its broad base of fat-cat stakeholders, the stock has been an ideal market bellwether. More than any other stock, it is responsible for making portfolio managers look like geniuses, and for creating the deception that a U.S. pension system headed for certain disaster in the next bear market is in great shape. This week, however,  we will turn out attention to bitcoin, represented in the chart above by a CME vehicle that tracks best bids and offers for bitcoin in real time across many exchanges.  It could be argued that bitcoin is an even better bellwether than Apple, since it lucidly captures not only the methodical rigging of the investment casino by Wall Street hucksters, but the unmitigated craziness of the players.  They are being cheered on by big banks that surely know better, since bitcoin's supposed value is backed by...nothing.  Without having much actual skin in the game, the banks have been shamelessly talking their book since they conspired to lift bitcoin from pariah status back in March 2020. 'Wayne's World' Nerds This followed a shakeout that would have devastated mainly Wayne's World nerds who were early adopters and traders of bitcoin.  The virtual currency fell from above $10,000 to $3900 before the big boys began to aggressively tout encrypted money as a viable medium for financial transactions. This has yet to happen, in part because cryptocurrencies (although not blockchain technology, which holds enormous promise) offers few advantages over a credit card system that works just

With December Gold trading near the middle of the channel shown (inset), it’s easy to visualize a move in either direction to the top or bottom of the range. My hunch is that the next big move will be lower, however, since last week’s gratuitous hump failed by a whopping $9 to surpass a distinctive ‘external’ peak at 1810.60 recorded on September 14. We were looking to get short if that price were reached; alas, the plunge from a mere 1801.90 caught us flat-footed. But the fact that bulls have borne most of the pain over the last three months, and that bears are not being given easy opportunities to get short, are yet more reasons to suspect a breakdown is nigh. In any event, we won’t pretend to know the outcome, but it might become easier to speculate on one if Mr. Market should inadvertently tip his hand this week with a meaningful tell, however subtle.

Inflation fears are at a generational peak, pushing our stubbornly unfearful Fed chairman against a wall. He may yet prove right in saying inflation will be transitory, but for reasons that should comfort no one. In the meantime, the U.S. dollar seems resistant to the nervous chatter while Treasury bonds, although struggling for altitude, continue to hold their own. Both are near the middle of their respective trading ranges for the last five years, presumably waiting for more persuasive evidence that the inflation we've seen to date is about to go out of control. An obvious reason this has yet to occur is that wages have barely budged relative to the soaring cost of groceries and consumer goods. But how high can inflation go, one might ask, when the broad middle class can no longer afford stuff? Answer: Only so far. The wealthy will not have much of a counter-effect, either, since the trillions they've banked from the bull market will get plowed back into financial assets and real estate, not CPI items. Meanwhile, the theory that raising the minimum wage creates inflation has been tested and refuted by a pandemic-strained job market. What it does most clearly is destroy jobs. McDonald's may have rolled over on paying burger flippers $15 an hour -- what choice did they have? -- but they have minimized their pain by revamping the restaurants so that as few as three or four employees can run an outlet, including the drive-through. For customers, this means it now takes ten minutes to order a burger using a kiosk, compared to 90 seconds when there was someone behind the counter taking orders. Virtually all labor-intensive businesses continue to find new ways to operate with fewer employees, and many of them, including banks, are on the verge of

Considering that AAPL is the most dependable bellwether we could have imagined for a bull market that has been powered by virtually unlimited quantities of money and unprecedented hubris, we should be most gratified to see it tracking a pattern that absolutely, positively cannot miss. By that I mean that the 151.02 target when reached will produce a precisely shortable peak, and that a decisive push past p on Monday or Tuesday will all but guarantee that 'D' will be achieved.  The pattern has also produced a juicy 'mechanical' buy that would have yielded a $1,280 gain on four round lots. Moreover, it seems likely that any more such signals would work equally well.  The only uncertainty in the picture is the precise stall Friday at the midpoint Hidden Pivot, 144.65. This is the second stall there in a week, and for all we know it could mark the end of the bull market. I mention this because the very suggestion sounds so ridiculous. To be sure, AAPL is taking its sweet old time pushing past p=144.65. But we shouldn't mistake this for weakness; it is deception, really, and that is why the bearish buzz that permeated the Rick's Picks chat room on Friday seemed so odd. Are bears seeing what I am seeing? Evidently not.