Rick Ackerman

Bulls spent the week fending off and frustrating sellers before lurching higher toward the 1885.40 target shown.  It is a Hidden Pivot of lesser degree than the one at 1880.10 given here  earlier, but the pattern is so shapely and promising that it justifies raising the target itself.  The pattern can be used to manage the risk of a long position or to acquire one 'mechanically' on the way up.  The bad guys seem to be losing their grip, and it is obvious they are having increasing difficulty pushing gold sharply lower no matter what the news or mood on Wall Street. The effect is subtle, but it is most certainly bullish.  _______    UPDATE (May 19, 10:07 p.m.): The futures achieved our 1885.40 rally target and then some with a thrust to 1891.30. That's not much of an overshoot, but in the context of a target as clear and compelling as this one, we should infer that still higher prices impend. It is a welcome sign that the takedown artists appear to be in a coma after having been punched senseless during the last two weeks.

We've got rally targets as high as 35.02, but for now we'll use the pattern shown, with a 28.54 objective, to get a confident handle on risk management and entry tactics along the way. The ABCD here is similar to the one I've featured in gold, although Silver came to rest last week just beneath a midpoint Hidden Pivot resistance at 27.66 equivalent to one gold bulls were head-butting at the bell. Once past it, expect the futures to move easily toward 28.54. As always, a decisive push past it, especially on first contact, would imply the uptrend is likely to continue. _______ UPDATE (May 18, 7:32 a.m.): The July futures hit 28.54 as expected, then blew past it. Shifting the 'A' low downward yielded a somewhat higher at 28.93 to max out the minor cycle, but that target too was reached overnight. Silver has certainly earned a rest of perhaps 3-5 days, but if it blasts higher quickly after a shallow correction, here is the pattern that will be in play, with a 31.65 target. I have very high confidence in the target, but also in the pattern itself for purposes of generating 'mechanical' (or other) signals to trade the levels. _______ UPDATE (May 19, 10:17 p.m.): As implied above, a pullback to the green line (x=28.858) would trigger an enticing 'mechanical' buy, stop 23.91.  Since entry risk would be more than $9700 per contract, we would need to create a 'camouflage' trigger to do the trade and reduce this by a much as 95% theoretical. If you care, make it known in the trading room if 25.858 is closely approached. Just to keep score, I will establish a tracking position regardless of whether subscribers are on board.

 I still like the 354.89 Hidden Pivot target that has served as our lodestone since early April.  The pattern to which it is tied is somewhat gnarly, although not quite gnarly enough for us to assume we would be alone shorting at 'D'. The target is particularly enticing nonetheless because with DIA at that height, bears would be caught in a murderous short squeeze while bulls would be giddy. A perfect storm, perhaps? Regardless, we should look to get short at a top that occurs just below D, and to extract what we can in the meantime from the implied rally to it. We should also be alert to a possible trend failure somewhat shy of last week's record 351.09, since virtually everyone will be expecting it to be breached or at least tested. _______ UPDATE (May 18, 11:13 p.m. ET): The close beneath the green line implies DIA is bound for at least p=337.24. With a little more weakness, this could be the first time in a long while that we've had a pattern suitable for getting short 'mechanically'. Here's the chart. ________ UPDATE (May 19, 10:56 a.m.): Having crushed the 337.24 midpoint Hidden Pivot that was our minimum downside target, DIA is now a shoe-in to hit 329.55, the 'D' target of this pattern. A rally to the green line -- x=341.09 -- would trigger a very appealing 'mechanical' short, stop 344.94.

The Cubes have fallen hard this month, but we shouldn't doubt that portfolio managers, being in full control of this tech-salted vehicle, let it happen in order to pick up some bargains. That doesn't necessarily mean it's going to D=355.05, although the gap through p=326.27 (see inset) on April 5 lends weight to that prospect. If so, it would complete a bull cycle begun in November -- a fitting end to a remarkable bull run.  It's worth noting that the selloff of the last two weeks would have stopped out a 'mechanical' buy at the red line. We don't often do mechanical entries at p, but if we had, our acquisition at p=326.26 would have come a cropper at 316.68, a mechanical stop-loss 68 cents above the subsequent low.  I have inferred strength rather than weakness from this, since QQQ was manifestly unable to fall to the green line (x=311.87), where entry would have been more attractive. ______ UPDATE (May 19, 11:02 a.m. ET):  DaBoyz still seem to have pretty good control of this barf bag, since it hasn't even taken out any important lows on the hourly chart in today's selloff of all else. My hunch is that it will, and sooner rather than later. _______ UPDATE (May 21): The barf bag provided precious little relief for bears last week as it remained in the grip of Wall Street's awesome ass-bandits. A pullback to the green line (x=311.87) would trigger a 'mechanical' buy (stop 297.47), but I would not recommend holding out for any more than p=326.27 if you should catch a lift. _______ UPDATE (May 25, 12:28 a.m.): No such luck. The Cubes have lurched higher on short-covering without having gotten within four points of the green line.  Now they appear bound for a minimum 347.26 (60-min, A=311.54 on 3/30.

Bulls and bears have been skirmishing since early February, and it remains to be seen who will prevail. To my eye, the now-deformed head-and-shoulders pattern shown in the chart looks distributive even if its earlier, indisputably bearish perfection has been compromised by May's sideways tedium. If a bullish breakout is going to occur nonetheless, I would expect this to happen subsequent to a feint beneath Mach's sub-210 lows. For the time being, however, I can offer you a 227.25 rally target. That is the 'D' coordinate of the reverse ABC pattern, on the daily chart, where a=215.24 on April 20. ______ UPDATE (May 19, 10:35 p.m. ET): If this hoax can fake its way up to the green line (x=219.64), short there 'mechanically' with a stop-loss just above C=223.24. ______ UPDATE (May 21): The short triggered, leaving us slightly in the red at the close. Hold to the 223.25 stop-loss for now, but cover half on a downdraft to p=216.18. The remainder can be held for a shot at D= 209.11. ______ UPDATE (May 25, 12:35  a.m.) The short appears all but certain to get stopped out just above 223.24. That would not diminish IWM's appeal to anyone wanting to try again, but the required rabc set-up would be labor-intensive. _______ UPDATE (May 25, 11:14 p.m.): Wake me if this brick hits 225.94, which would generate a bullish impulse leg on the daily chart. ______ UPDATE (Jun 1, 3:09 p.m.): The update I sent out Monday night seems to have vanished into digital hyperspace. Anyway, I'd noted that IWM's rally past 225.94 should have impressed no one.  Let's wait until such time as it fist-pumps above April 28's 230.95 high before we give it the time of day. 

This bitcoin proxy has generated two buy signals at the green line, each of which produced a quick, handsome profit. However, I did not recommend buying last week's third return to 'x' because BRTI seemed to have lost its mojo. The weakness preceded Musk's rebuke last week to those who would suck up enormous amounts of electrical power to 'mine' the blockchain. This has hardly killed speculative craziness in bitcoin alternatives, most notably Ethereum's product. But it did put the kibosh on bitcoin itself, casting at least mild doubt on the 72,148 rally target we've been using since early March. It remains theoretical valid, but I'd say the odds are about even that BRTI will slip below C=43,041 before it can get a running start on the next histrionic flight to who-knows-where. _______ UPDATE (May 17, 2:37 p.m. ET): Sellers cracked the 43,041 support decisively, presumably stopping out many bulls. The fact that the subsequent bounce, lightened of profit-takers, did not get very far -- it triggered a mechanical short at p=45,627, actually -- suggests BRTI will grope its way still lower in search of durable support. Should that occur, the most logical place for a bullish reversal would be from the 39,672 'D' target of this pattern.  Alternatively, if BRTI were to pop above the 46,638 'external' peak recorded yesterday on the way down, that would put bulls back in command. ______ UPDATE (May 18, 11:31 p.m.): With today's nasty relapse, bitcoin demonstrated once again that it is one of the easiest and most dependable vehicles to trade and forecast using Hidden Pivots. This is notwithstanding BRTI's high price, which requires that we interpolate targeted swings using other, cheaper bitcoin vehicles. A short from 39,672 (see above) would have worked perfectly, generating a one-day gain of more than $5000 per

I’ve mentioned the “discomfort zone’ in the chat room as a place where all of the best trades tend to happen. This lesson explores this new concept and frames it in a way that can take easily your trading results up a few notches while greatly multiplying daily opportunities. It is one of the most idea-intensive sessions I have presented to date.

The 1880.10 rally target first flagged here a while back now looks very likely to be achieved, and sooner than I'd expected just a week ago. Back-to-back rallies on Thursday and Friday caught bulls and bears by surprise, although the former are likely to remain skeptical, given the many setbacks they've suffered over the last ten months.  More interesting than the 1880.10 target is one at 2324.70 activated by the thrust slightly past the green line (1838.30) of a significantly larger pattern. We'll need to see how well buyers handle p=2000.50 of that pattern before we can determine the odds of a further run-up to 2324, but p itself looks no worse than an even bet to be reached. _______ UPDATE (May 12, 11:08 p.m.): Make that, achieved later rather than sooner, since gold has lapsed back into its wonted torment-those-who-love-it-most mode. 

Silver's chart is pulsating with bullish possibilities well above the 28.945 target we've been using for the last couple of weeks. The target comes from a 'reverse ABC' pattern that began with a 24.85 low recorded on January 27.  I've added a much larger pattern begun last June from 18.04 that yields a far more ambitious target at 35.02(!) Although an ascent to this number cannot yet be 'guaranteed', it is encouraging that the futures are approaching the 28.62 midpoint Hidden Pivot where 'mechanical' buyers at x=25.42 on March 4 would be able to book a solid partial profit. _______ UPDATE (May 12, 11:20 p.m.):  The fraudsters may be able to hold silver down for a little while and even pummel it on some days, but whom do they think they're fooling? Certainly not us.