There are unfulfilled rally targets at 3769 and 3802 that have kept us confidently on the right side of the trend regardless of news or mood swings. More immediately, however, last week's powerfully impulsive price action has created a lesser, bullish pattern with a 3727.50 target that is all but certain to be achieved, probably by no later than Wednesday. A tradeable stall at this Hidden Pivot seems likely, and I am therefore recommending a tightly stopped short to anyone who has made money on the way up. As always, an easy move through a target implies the trend is likely to continue, usually after a correction. _______ UPDATE (Dec 8, 5:03 p.m.): Time to start paying attention, since the futures are closing on p=3728.00 (slightly adjusted from above), the first place where a major trend failure could occur. Although I still believe the somewhat higher targets for the larger pattern cited above will be achieved, you can attempt a very tightly stopped (i.e., 1.25-2.00 points) short at 3728.00. Here's the chart, and although it lacks a one-off 'A', the pattern otherwise is quite appealing. _______ UPDATE (Dec 9, 7:52 p.m.): The futures traded no higher than 3715, so we were unable to squeeze off a short on our terms. The downdraft created an impulse leg on the hourly chart, but let's give it a day to see what bears can do with it. _______ UPDATE (Dec 19, 5:52): The selling turned gutless on day two and is struggling to reach a 3630.25 downside target. If DaBoyz can squeeze this hoax above 3681.25 overnight, they will likely be in charge as the week comes to an end. Here's a fresh chart that shows everything. _______ UPDATE (Dec 11, 9:55 a.m.): The 3630.25 target came within two points of nailing a
The 25.85 rally target advertised here last week still obtains, as does a 'mechanical' buy down at 21.73, stop 20.35. The move has been one of the most powerful we've seen in any vehicle since this record-breaking bull began on March 23. There has been only one correction worthy of the name in the last two months, and it lasted just four days. Last Monday's huge gap-up opening popped GBTC out of its brief funk with such force that bears struggled unsuccessfully all week to bring it back down to a more attractive price. Their failure will have bullish consequences looking ahead, including a likely easy thrust past the target on first contact. ________ UPDATE (Dec 8, 5:20 p.m. EST): Numerous subscribers did the trade recommended above, so I am establishing a tracking position: long 200 shares at 21.73, stop 20.35, with a price target of 25.85. The corrective move well into last week's three-point gap feels treacherous, but the trade was selected strictly by-the-numbers. _______ UPDATE (Dec 9, 8:32 a.m.): The trade was stopped out for a $276 loss. Bitcoin vehicles that trade 24/7 have recovered sharply overnight from an abysmal low, but they are still below the levels that obtained at 4:00 p.m. EST Tuesday, when this vehicle stopped trading. The trade failed mainly because it did not take advantage of a key aspect of mechanical set-ups -- i.e., that they work best in vehicles tracing out particularly violent swings. In this case, I should have advised buying at the green line, which would have taken a violent pullback indeed to achieve, rather than at the red line, which reflected a merely modest correction. The risk thereof would have been in missing the trade because the retracement did not reach the green line. If it does, you can
Last week's 12540 high came within 10 points, or 0.08%, of a minor Hidden Pivot target at 12550 target. However, the pullback from that number was shallow, and the futures looked like they were raring to go when time ran out. If they are up and at 'em on Sunday night and trading above the target -- as why should they not? -- I'd suggest using the 12804 target of a larger pattern that has been theoretically in play for more than two months. The pattern is sufficiently clear that we should expect a pullback from very close to it. However, it looks too obvious to be worth much for trading purposes. A tw0-day close above 12804 would put 12969 in play (daily, A= 10,942 on 11/2). Using the smaller pattern, you could get long 'mechanically ' on a swoon to 11869, stop 11502. _______ UPDATE (Dec 8, 5:25 p.m. EST): The futures spent two days consolidating above a middling Hidden Pivot resistance at 12,550, implying there's buying power enough to take them higher. _______ UPDATE (Dec 9, 8:11 p.m.): If the futures touch the red line, that would trigger a 'mechanical' buy with a stop-loss at 11,992. I suggest this trade only if you are able to forge a 'camouflage' entry trigger that reduces theoretical initial risk to no more than $300 per contract. Please note that the straight-up entry as given above would carry entry risk of $4,880 per contract. _______ UPDATE (Dec 10, 6:10 p.m.): A 'mechanical' bid placed where I'd advised would have caught the low of a rally worth as much as $4400 intraday. Only one subscriber expressed an interest in the trade or a variant of it, so I have not established a tracking position.
The futures have been slogging painfully toward an 1871.80 rally target that still looks like a good bet to be achieved. That implies a pullback to the green line (1829.40) can be used to get long 'mechanically' with a stop-loss at 1815.20, just beneath the pattern's point 'C' low. A position with at least two contracts is suggested in order to allow profit-taking on an initial move from x to p= 1843.60. If the Feb contract thrusts higher from the get-go on Sunday night, I wouldn't suggest chasing it. A second 'mechanical' entry might be possible nonetheless on a pullback from just above p2=1857.70. _______ UPDATE (Dec 7, 11:36 a.m.): A powerful rally this morning has pushed the futures to 1873.00, slightly above my target. If you followed my simple instructions, which were predicated on buying two contracts at the green line and taking a partial profit at the red line, you came away with a profit of $5,660. Please report results in the chat room so that I can better gauge interest in this trading vehicle. For now, let's see how long D=1871.80 holds as resistance. The sooner it is dispatched, if it is, the more bullish. _______ UPDATE (Dec 8, 5:43 p.m.): Price action at p=1862.00 all but guarantees more upside over the near term to at least 1899.10. Round-number resistance will be an additional impediment, but if bulls can punch through both they should be presumed headed to at least 1967.00 (daily, A=1699.50 on 6/5). Here's the chart. _______ UPDATE (Dec 9, 9:17 a.m.): You can buy a pullback to x=1843.40 'mechanically' using a stop-loss at 1824.70. _______ UPDATE (Dec 9, 8:22 p.m.): In the chat room, I suggested scratching the trade because of belatedly perceived weaknesses in the A-B impulse leg. Those who'd opened a position
The 24.78 rally target we used last week is still in play, but the futures may have done too much consolidating over the last several days to suggest they will be satisfied with a mere 53-cent move above Friday's close. If they pop above it we can use a larger, far more ambitious pattern that projects to as high as 34.67. First the futures would need to achieve p=28.30, a minimum upside projection that became viable on this chart back on October 9. The futures have not tripped any opportune 'mechanical' buying signals in a long while, but for now we'll take the optimistic view. ______ UPDATE (Dec 9, 8:25 p.m.): To avoid mental fatigue, I've suggested averting our eyes for a day or two in gold. I'll now suggest doing the same in silver. _______ UPDATE (Dec 12, 6:03 p.m.): That felt pretty good, actually. This time, let's try averting our eyes for an entire week. If the futures break down, p2=20.68 will the the first stop, and then D=18.82 (daily, A= 29.38 on 9/1). ________ UPDATE (Dec 15, 5:53 p.m.): Today's rally generated a robust impulse leg on the hourly chart that portends a test of last week's highs near 25.00. If they are easily surpassed, look for more upside over the near term to 26.66 (60-min, A=22.04 on 11/30; B= 25.015 on 12/8).
Although no one can predict when the dam will break, plunging the economy into hard times to rival the 1930s, we can be quite certain that a day of reckoning is drawing near. Speculative mania across a wide swath of assets is at a millennial peak, stoked by out-of-control fiscal and monetary stimulus. To further destabilize the system and push insanity to untold heights, the Fed has led speculators to believe it will continue to do whatever it takes to sustain the illusion of economic growth. Reflections from two economists who have remained aloof from the popular wisdom explain why this cannot last. They do so not with jeremiads warning of doomsday, but with clear, hard logic. Here's Hoisington's Lacy Hunt, PhD: "Each additional dollar of debt in 1980 generated a rise in GDP of 60 cents, up from 54 cents in 1940. The 1980’s was the last decade for the productivity of debt to rise. Since then this ratio has dropped sharply, from 42 cents in 1989 to 27 cents in 2019." In case you missed his point, let me state it another way: It is taking roughly $3.70 of borrowing to create a dollar's worth of economic growth at the margin, and the ratio is continuing to worsen. How long can that go on? A Bubble Unimagined I wrote on this subject myself -- for Barron's, two decades ago, in a think-piece about money velocity. At the time, debt was nearly three times as productive as it is today. Even so, in comparison with post-War numbers, it looked like a disaster in the making. I thought it was curtains for the economy, but in retrospect my overblown fears reflected a failure of the imagination. All we got was the relatively piddling Dot-Com Crash. It was a picnic in
We spent the entire hour dog-tailing the E-mini S&Ps, and it paid off with the discovery of exceptional opportunities in patterns big, small and in-between. Most of them were what we used to call 'camouflage' trades, a tactic that has been refined by adding in 'mechanical' and rABC set-ups. By 'refined', I mean to imply that the adaptations allow us to control more tightly for risk and to initiate trades with greater confidence. This lesson will appeal in particular to intermediate-level Pivoteers who want to up their game.
You need only watch Giuliani's hearings on election fraud for an hour or so to understand how the computer geeks could overturn Biden's win. It's like having a seat behind the scoreboard for Bobby Thomson's "shot heard 'round the world." Forget all the supposed right-wing-conspiracy stuff, including charges that Dominion, the voting-machine company, shares DNA with Hugo Chavez. It turns out that this is verifiably true -- has been verified, actually, even if no one from the Washington Post or the New York Times could be bothered with such a trivial task. Neither, quite evidently, have they looked at Dominion's operator's manual, which apparently explains in so many pages how to hook up their equipment to the internet. Dominion has flatly denied this can be done, so confident are they that no big-league reporters would think to ask them for a copy of the manual. No matter. The truth about the company will out eventually, but it's not crucial to Trump's case; nor for that matter are strong accusations from Trump himself. Amidst the din of denial, The Wall Street Journal embarrassed itself last week with a laughable item about how the President has been telling those closest to him that he knows he's lost the fight. Yeah, sure. Watch him the next time he's on TV and judge for yourself whether he's ready to pack it in. With recounts continuing, the news media have sustained an ostentatious yawn for nearly a month. If this were Nuremberg, they'd be high-fiving Bormann's defense team. Keep pretending nothing happened, you jag-offs, because the forensics whizzes are about to knock you on your ass. Their Einsteinian grasp of election math may not provide the hard evidence skeptics say has been missing, but it will point auditors in precisely the right direction to determine
The Mother of All Rallies is closing on a potentially important target at 3802.00 where 'selling the news' will become an opportune bet. It would become still moreso if the election is settled when the futures get there, vaccine euphoria is in high gear and the Wall Street Journal is doing its patriotic best to convince us that all is right with the world. From a technical standpoint, the futures blew past the red line with such force on September 9 that there can be little doubt they will reach the D target. The only caveat is that a bigger picture pattern has a 3769.00 target that could conceivable stop the rally cold. Either way, a potentially important top looms at a time when the din of bullish hubris is so loud that it could practically make one bleed from the ears.
Bitcoin came down hard after topping last week, but not before impaling a crucial long-term Hidden Pivot with enough brio to demonstrate that bulls are still in charge. If more proof of this were needed, a well-known figure in the bitcoin world 'leaked' word that bitcoin 'might' come under hard scrutiny before Trump leaves office. Pretty feeble, but the story served its purpose, causing many weak sisters to dive out of their shares. It's too early to tell how far the correction will go, but the bounce from Friday's 17.60 looks likely to push well into a gap from Friday morning that started at 20.87. _______ UPDATE (Nov 30, 9:18 p.m.): The powerful gap up through p=21.73 all but guarantees that the D target at 25.85 will be reached. A pullback first to x=19.66, however unlikely, would trigger an opportune 'mechanical' buy, stop 17.59. Here's the chart. _______ UPDATE (Dec 1, 8:52 p.m.): You can hazard a 'mechanical' bid at 21.73, the red line, stop 20.35, since GBTC seems unlikely to revisit the green line. This new gambit is riskier but still looks like it will yield better-than-even odds.
