Rick Ackerman

The futures have rallied robustly without having quite reached a 129^03 bear market target given here in July for the September contract. Moreover, the initial rally from the low has generated a bullish impulse leg on the hourly chart, suggesting it will prove to be more than a flash-in-the-pan. Notice that the appearance of a double top with a high at 130^30 made in early September has cloaked the strong impulsiveness of the thrust, creating an attractive camouflage opportunity with short-term upside potential to 131^25. _______ UPDATE (September 17): Yesterday's fleeting burst missed my rally target by half a point (13/32), suggesting T-Bonds could spend a week or two basing before they are able to launch a sustained rally. However, the outlook would improve significantly if buyers get second wind for a move exceeding the two labeled peaks.  Please note as well that a 'B-C' pullback from the small zone in-between them (see inset) could yield an exceptional opportunity for 'camouflage' traders to bull up on-the-cheap. _______ UPDATE (September 23): A pattern similar to the one I'd sketched earlier has unfolded, tripping a buy signal at 131^22. If you used my recommendation to get long, please let me know in the chat room. I'll establish tracking guidance if I hear from at least two subscribers who filled the order.  In any case, the first profit taking opportunity on the daily chart lies at p=132^13 (see inset, a new chart). _______ UPDATE (September 25, 3:40 p.m.): The futures have spiked today to within three ticks of the very bullish, 133^26 rally target I'd flagged a while back in the chart (see inset). That makes this vehicle a short, at least for the moment.  However, if the futures do not pause for at least a few days at such a crystal-clear target,

Silver's pluck has matched Gold's Sunday night, resulting in a promising bullish impulse leg on the hourly chart. It may be a little too promising, however, especially for those who are frustrated over having missed buying near Friday's bargain-basement lows. Under the circumstances, the advice I offered to gold traders -- wait for a second point C=22.020 to form before you dive in -- applies. However, skillful camouflageurs can test the water cautiously if the 22.233 entry trigger associated with the existing, tentative c=22.020 is hit. (Unlike in December Gold, that has yet to occur in this vehicle.) _______ UPDATE (September 17): Yesterday's choppy selloff did little technical damage to the still-bullish hourly chart (see inset), but buyers will need to exercise extra caution getting aboard, since new point 'C' lows have been turning up with vexatious frequency.  Camouflageurs should note that, as of around 11:40 p.m. EDT Monday, the futures were on a buy signal from 21.898. Look for your entry trigger on charts of 1-minute degree, since there were some potentially attractive set-ups developing therein shortly before midnight. The relevant 'external' peaks lay, respectively, at 21.980 (10:49 p.m.) and 21.970.

With Sunday night's $28 surge, December Gold's 60-minute and weekly charts are now synchronously bullish. However, while the former has already tripped a buy signal, the latter will need to hit 1345.20 -- $9.30 above the so-far high -- to do likewise. Traders should come to the task with a bullish bias, but I'd suggest waiting for a second point 'C' low to form before you look for a 'camouflage' entry signal on the lesser charts.

It's official: The E-Mini S&Ps are about to leap at least 70 points, to 1769.50, catalyzed by the seemingly inevitable choice of Janet Yellin as Ben Bernanke's replacement. Those of you who are familiar with Hidden Pivot dynamics will be struck by the way tonight's short-squeeze has gapped effortlessly through a midpoint resistance -- one that was all the more daunting because of its close proximity to the old record high. By our runes, this all but guarantees a run-up to the 1769.50 'D' target (see inset) with which the midpoint pivot is associated. That would be equivalent to a Dow rally of about 600 points, so traders should take an aggressively bullish stance between here and the target.  Please note as well that a retracement on Monday to the 1693.90 midpoint or very close to it would strongly imply that the rally will top, at least short-term, at exactly 1769.50, making it short-able. ______ UPDATE (September 17, 12:22 a.m. EDT): Early Tuesday morning, the futures were poised to stairstep lower on 'D' pivots that lay, successively, at 1684.75,  1683.00 and 1681.75 (5-min, A=1698.50, with various B-C combinations).  Very precise action at the 1688.00 p midpoint associated with the 1683.00 target suggests it will be the best place to try bottom-fishing with a straight bid -- i.e, without 'camouflage'). Accordingly, I'll suggest attempting entry with a 1683.25 bid, stop 1682.75 (!) This set-up looks very promising, but because the rally could be fragile, be prepared to take a partial profit on an initial move of as little as 4-5 ticks.

With Lawrence Summers out of the race by his own choice, Janet Yellen looks all but certain to succeed Helicopter Ben Bernanke as chairman of the Federal Reserve. Do you have any advice for her? That is the Question of the Week, and we are encouraging all who post on the topic to speak freely. Scholarly citations from The Creature from Jekyll Island will be especially welcome. Personally, we doubt the choice ever mattered, since the Fed was designed by the Banksters as a self-perpetuating scam that can steer itself as competently as Google’s driverless car -- albeit with the help of such useful idiots as Paul Krugman, the U.S. President (whoever he is) and the editorial boards of The New York Times and The Wall Street Journal, all of whom have either implicitly or explicitly endorsed and/or helped to perpetuate such nefarious schemes of the feather merchants as Quantitative Easing, fractional-reserve banking and, of course, central banking itself. Summers was widely perceived as the monetary hawk, Yellen as the dove – a divide with implications that were underscored by the exuberant leap gold and index futures took Sunday night on the news concerning Summers. The hawk/dove thing really boiled down to Tweedle-Dee or Tweedle-Dum, though, since neither Yellin nor Summers – nor Joe Blow, for that matter – will have any flexibility in maneuvering interest rates. How could they when every uptick in real rates brings the global financial system’s quadrillion dollar Ponzi scheme an inch closer to collapse? Your turn, readers….

Bullion is getting drubbed in the wee hours Friday morning, with silver acting even weaker than gold. On the 180-minute chart shown, the most recent downthrust has generated a fresh, bearish impulse leg that could weigh on this vehicle for days or even weeks. From a trading perspective, the still-incomplete impulse leg could generate an enticing 'camouflage' short in the manner I've sketched.  We should pay close attention to whatever midpoint support forms thereupon, however, since a reversal from near or above it would be the first encouraging sign we've had in weeks.

Shortly after 1 a.m. EDT, December Gold was playing  toe-sies with a minor correction target, but it was not possible to predict whether the Hidden Pivot support would hold. For a precise reckoning of what it will take for bullion to get back in bullish gear, check out my update for December Gold and the chart that accompanies it.  Late bulletin: Moments ago, at around 1:30 a.m., DaBoyz tanked this vehicle with a $12 downdraft. New minimum downside target: 1306.90.)

Using puts and calls to play directional hunches is akin to using numbers cribbed from Chinese fortune cookies to play the lottery. In either case, your chances of coming out ahead are slim to none. For a look at how badly the deck is stacked against you, check out the anatomy of an option trade in which our primary goal was to keep risk and reward in a 1:3 relationship.

Currency traders should try to take advantage of the very attractive 'camouflage' pattern developing in this vehicle. Notice that the A-B impulse leg looks like nothing special. It meets our criteria perfectly, actually -- especially because the point 'B' high failed to surpass some obvious prior 'external' peaks.  I've sketched out a hypothetical set-up that would have a very high probability of getting bull traders from the 'x' entry point to 'p', at least. _______ UPDATE (September 13, 2:09 a.m.): This vehicle has tripped a very promising, bullish 'camo' entry signal at 99.522 (see inset, a fresh chart) with a pattern almost identical to the one I'd sketched. The actual coordinates lie (on the daily chart)  at A= 98.535 (9/6), B=100.602 (9/11) and C=99.005.  The upthrust had come within an inch of the p midpoint resistance by day's end, strongly implying it has plenty of power to reach D without much ado. UPDATE (September 16, 2:42 a.m. EDT): This vehicle in fact died an inch shy of the 100.039 midpoint pivot where half of any long positions entered at 99.522 would have been taken off for a partial profit. Since the tout was posted after the 'x' entry signal was triggered, trades would need to have been initiated via camouflage, producing results that would have varied. The inability of this contract to achieve p on such a promising 'camo' pattern implies significant weakness ahead.