Rick Ackerman

The 119.52 rally target first broached here a while back should have been a piece of cake, but Tesla has in fact been struggling to get there. However, yesterday's rally peaked just above a small 'external' peak at 104.26 recorded on 5/31, generating the first bullish impulse leg we've seen on the hourly chart in weeks. You can use this chart to orient yourself toward the new target at 120.42, but 'camo' risk avoidance when initiating a buy will best be found on charts of 15-minute degree or less. _______ UPDATE (June 19):  DaScumballs who control this stock and who engineered May's spectacular short squeeze to distribute shares bought at much lower prices evidently are in accumulation mode once again.  How else to explain the adroit timing of a story planted in The Wall Street Journal yesterday that described Tesla's troubles setting up a dealer network in states with laws that zealously guard car dealer monopolies?  This story, played on the front page, could have been written at any point along the way of Tesla's vertical run-up.  The fact that it ran when it did attests to the power and cunning behind the rigged game that is Wall Street. _______ UPDATE (June 24, 8:25 p.m.):  Three weeks of sideways tedium could make one forget that there are still higher targets outstanding.  That is indeed the case, however, and the 120.42 target given above should be kept in mind as a minimum bull-market objective. ______ UPDATE (July 3, 11:00 a.m. EDT): Yesterday's high at 121.89 fulfilled our target.  Traders should position from the short side now. _______ UPDATE (July 8, 3:14 a.m. EDT):  The pullback from our target amounted to a little more than $7, but traders would need to have been nimble to get shorts covered near the low, 114.27.

My tout for Google today includes a chart that highlights a subtle but possibly significant failure by bulls to clear a key technical hurdle during the most recent stampede. I'm not betting against the stock at this point, mind you, but further developments bear watching.

Much as we've come to view the stock market as a one-way bet these days, so have we come to accept that Google will eventually sell for $1000 a share.  Or will it? I'd need odds to bet the "Don't Pass" line on this one, but it is at least curious that the stock's most recent rally failed by a hair to surpass a small but technically significant 'external' peak at 892.14 that I've labeled in the chart.  As we know, rallies that are destined for bigger things don't usually hesitate at such trivial obstacles, but in this case Google did. If you look closely at similar rallies in the chart, you'll see that in each instance where there was a small peak that required just a smidgen more effort to exceed, the stock did not fail.  GOOG could still surpass 892.14 on the next thrust, but as we know, it's the first attempt that defines whether buyers have the moxie to keep on going.  I raise this point speculatively, of course, and Google will still be on a nice 'camo' buy signal if it gets past 892.14 and pulls back from just above it.  But we should nonetheless note the small failure that has already occurred as a very subtle warning sign of possible trouble ahead.

There were some nasty cross currents at work on Monday -- tradable, as will nearly always be the case for camouflageurs, but not easily so. The pattern shown could prove useful to night owls, or perhaps to day traders if it has not panned out by the opening bell on Tuesday.  The 1659.50 target is validated by price action Monday morning very near, if not precisely at, the p midpoint. Notice that there were two distinctive peaks created during the first half of the session.  They lie, respectively, at 1641.00 and 150 minutes later, at  1639.50.  Any b-c pullback that begins from somewhere in-between would be a bonanza for camouflageurs looking to get long. If it happens almost too quickly to catch that would be a plus, since there would be relatively few competitors aboard.  You should plan accordingly by being on instant-alert.

I've suggested fading a rally today, although index futures looked like a bull trade Sunday night.  Either play should be approached methodically, however, since hunches could get expensive if we are wrong.  A strong rally would imply there are too many cocksure bears around.

To filter out mere noise, which has become more than a little tiresome, I'd suggest setting screen alerts above and below the current market at, respectively, 1397.80 and 1368.20.  A print at the higher number would be bullishly impulsive on intraday charts (although not quite on the hourly, as you can see). The lower number is a midpoint support (see inset), and we should be concerned if it's exceeded to the downside by more than 2.50 intraday, or if the futures close beneath it for two consecutive days.  That would put a 1342.00 target in play -- presumably a downpayment on an even more bearish one at 1219.20 that we've held in mind for quite a while.

With no serious sellers to oppose them, DaBoyz are making the usual hay on a Sunday night, effecting a so-far six-point levitation in this vehicle. The bigger picture is bullishly impulsive, based on last Thursday's vicious, all-day-long short-squeeze. However, based on a gut hunch, I'm inclined to short into any strength today.  Night owls may be able to find a way to do so directly on Sunday night if the rally peters out before morning.  However, on the 15-minute chart, and most immediately, the best opportunities may come from the long side.  As you can see (inset), there's a series of external peaks that could provide an easy way to initiate a 'buy'. Ideally, any profits you make trading with the bullish flow could be used to cushion the stop-loss for the first shorting opportunity.  _______ UPDATE (11:41 a.m. EDT): The futures have exploded higher this morning, so I've posted the following in the chat room to stoke the bullish imagination: "The 180-minute chart (see inset) shows three bull patterns driving this hoax right now. In descending order of magnitude, their respective point A lows occurred on 4/18/13, 6/6 and 6/13. The first, and biggest, pattern projects to 1746.75. That is congruent with a DJIA 16800 target that has been well noted. The small, and current, frisson projects to 1660.50, and I'd make that my minimum upside projection for the near term now that the 1639.00 p midpoint has been exceeded by a decisive 2.00 points.  However, the rally will be subject to presumably niggling interference at 1643.25, the D target of the pattern starting with June 6's 1591.00 low."

In the chat room on Friday, I'd informally suggested shorting into whatever rally ended the week. However, with the Dow off 106 points at the close, this tactic would have been flouting DaScumballs' tendency to reverse Friday's polarity on Sunday nights   This they appear to be doing -- on gaseous volume, as is nearly always the case -- but we'll have to wait until Monday morning before we can fade them using puts or calls. Any such opportunity will be unpredictable via a tout disseminated Sunday night, but when the markets open Monday morning, I'd suggest looking to get short at D targets of minor, uptrending abc patterns.  Night owls looking for additional options should check out my tout for the E-Mini S&Ps, since it takes into account the six-point rally that has already occurred.  The chart shows that bears will be shooting for a move down to at least 146.21 once the midpoint support at 149.55 is busted. _______ UPDATE (June 18, 2:25 a.m. EDT):  Three large, gratuitous swings yesterday left DIA the equivalent of 109 Dow points higher. Although the rally top evinced the same chicken-heartedness that I've described in today's GOOG tout, we'll defer to insanity and not try to intercept this vehicle aggressively.  'Camo' shorts are okay at the 'D' targets of minor rallies, but it will be catch-as-catch-can.  Please feel free to query me about any possible opportunities you may have spotted if I'm in the chat room.

Are U.S. stocks in a bear market?  Although we don’t pretend to have a crystal ball, the chart below could soon give us enough information to quote odds on it. From a technical standpoint, using our proprietary method of analysis, the key feature is the 14953 low made last week.  Thursday’s swoon to that number overshot an important “Hidden Pivot” correction target at 14962 (aka ‘p’) by a hair – i.e., nine points, or 0.10 percent.  That’s not enough to regard the support as having been violated, nor to provide a solid basis for predicting the direction of the next big move. It the move is higher, however, then a 16800 bull-market target broached here earlier will be back on the marquee.  Alternatively, if the Indoos decisively breach last week’s low, we would expect the sell-off to continue to at least 14624, a three percent decline from Friday’s settlement price and a 6% fall from mid-May’s all-time high at 15542. That would be little more than a stumble, of course, since it would fall well shy of the 20 percent threshold needed to signal a bear market. A 20-percent decline would imply a 3108-point selloff to 12433.  Again, Hidden Pivot Analysis should be helpful in determining whether an initially mild selloff to 14624 – what bulls will undoubtedly regard as a healthy correction – is likely to snowball into an avalanche to 12433 or lower.  How will we be able to predict this in advance? Very simply, by closely monitoring price action at the two numbers given above: 14962 and 14624.  If the first is exceeded by more than 10 points intraday, then the second will become an odds-on bet. And if the second is exceeded on a closing basis for two consecutive days, then look out below. At that