Rick Ackerman

To stretch the bearish imagination, I've identified a worst-case target for HUI, which has looked heavy lately. A key support -- a midpoint pivot, also identified -- must hold if bulls are to avoid a cliff dive in the near future.

The Gold Bugs Index has been struggling to stay above the 239.44 midpoint pivot shown (red line), but if the support fails we could be looking at 185.41 as a minimum downside objective. More immediately, a downtrend on the hourly chart will need to hold above the 254.76 target (A= 283.19 on June 6 at 3:30 p.m.; B= 265.73 on 6/10 at 10:30 a.m.) to keep bullish hopes alive.

Bulls and bears have been in 'dueling' mode for two weeks, but the latter hold a small edge at the moment because the recent rally top at 891.00 conspicuously failed to surpass May 28's 892.14 peak. This is true for the 240-minute chart shown, although charts of lesser degree remain sufficiently bullish to imply that traders could position from either side, depending on what time frame suits their needs. Most immediately, camoflageurs should seek opportunity on the 30-minute chart, where a so-far minor downtrend promises to generate a subtly impulsive 'a-b' leg: a=883.96 on 6/11 at 3:30 p.m. EDT.

Yesterday's short-lived show of bravado failed to generate a bullish impulse leg on the hourly chart, so we should expect the futures to head still lower on Wednesday.  If so, the first place where we might look for bulls to find traction is at the 1617.75 midpoint pivot shown.  If attempting to bottom-fish there, as well you might, I'd suggest looking for your opportunity on charts of 15-minute degree or less.  Please note, however, that an easy breach of this 'hidden' support would be telegraphing more downside over the near term to as low as 1587.00 -- a drop equivalent to about 300 points in the Dow. ______ UPDATE (9:29 a.m. EDT):  With stocks opening momentarily, the futures have in fact shredded their way higher overnight, albeit without having generated a bullish impulse leg on the hourly chart. That would occur with an additional push of 3.50 points above the so-far high, 1638.00.  On the 60m chart, camouflageurs should note the location of two external peaks that look well suited to getting long with little risk. They lie, respectively, at 1641.25 (6/11 at 3:00 a.m.) and 1642.25 (6/10 at midnight).

The August contract looks headed for another test of a 1354.20 midpoint support that barely held last time. If this Hidden Pivot is breached intraday by more than $2.00 or so, or the futures close beneath it for two consecutive days, we should infer that they are bound for the pattern's 'D' sibling at 1219.20.  A target very close to this was first breached here a month ago in conjunction with the June futures, along with another at 1190.

The chart accompanying today's U.S. Dollar tout shows why the greenback was due for a rest, but it also shows why we should monitor its vital signs closely, since the last rally missed hitting a bullish benchmark by a whisker.

The big picture still looks bullish, but the dollar was due for a rest after peaking two weeks ago within a hair of the 84.55 rally target shown. We'll need to monitor the pullback closely for signs of more-than-minor weakness (i.e., abcd corrective patterns that exceed their 'd' targets), however, since the apex of the last rally fell a tad shy of the 84.57 peak it needed to have exceeded to reresh the bullish energy of the daily chart.  _______ UPDATE (4:10 p.m. EDT): Today's weakness spells more trouble, although not necessarily the U.S. dollar's imminent demise.  DXY will now fall to at least 80.66, or to 80.19 if any lower. Both numbers are Hidden Pivot supports, and if they don't evince a discernible bouncem then look out below.

The futures have slightly exceeded our longstanding downside target at 3.792, but the clarity of the correction pattern (inset, and judge for yourself) leaves precious little room for more weakness over the near term. Traders looking for a low-risk entry opportunity should focus on the 5-minute chart, where a buying signal was tripped at 3.795 early Tuesday morning at around 3:10 a.m. EDT.  My guess is that there will be others if you're attentive. _______ UPDATE (June 17):  The ease with which the futures crushed a clear HP support at 3.792 (see inset, a fresh chart) implies that even lower prices are coming. The damage could be undone with an upthrust surpassing 3.868, but failing that, the futures will likely grope their way down to obvious structural support near last February's 3.382 low. _______ UPDATE (June 18): The futures turned bullishly impulsive on the intraday charts at the top of yesterday's rally, but that doesn't alter the fact that the thrust came from lows that had exceeded an important and clear downside target. This suggest that lower lows will eventually be seen. For the time being, however, this vehicle should be traded with a bullish bias.

We've been focused on a long-term bear-market target at 135^05, looking for any hint that the Fed is about to step in to reverse the steady price erosion in this vehicle before investors hit the panic button. A lesser but still significant target at 137^07 may provide clues concerning the near-  to intermediate-term, however, as well as a place to attempt bottom-fishing. This target is quite clear and has already been confirmed by precise price action at the 'p' midpoint, so you could conceivably step in with a bid at 135^06 and a stop-loss as tight as three ticks. However, and as always, camouflage will be the preferred entry tactic. Regardless of whether you trade the target, you should expect it to work precisely as a minimum downside objective. _______ UPDATE (June 19, 11:20 p.m. EDT): The futures have kissed the 137^07 target noted above, setting up a possible bottom-fishing opportunity for 'camo' traders. I'd suggest looking for your opportunity on charts of 15-minute degree or less. _______ UPDATE (June 20, 9:06 a.m. EDT):  Wow, I'm impressed.  The 137^07 support held for all of three hours before a steep plunge turned it into resistance. The selloff came within a little more than half-a-point of the longstanding, 135^05 target noted above -- a major bear market objective, as far as I'm concerned.  Because it comes from a continuous (i.e., blended) chart, however, it is unlikely to prove precisely reliable. To winnow down the possibilities of where an important low is likely to occur, I'll use the September contract, as before, but with a new point C low revised to reflect recent price action. This yields an attractive target at 134^15, a Hidden Pivot that should provide a decent foothold for camouflageurs. _______ UPDATE (July 1, 3:06 a.m. EDT):  Important Hidden Pivots