Rick Ackerman

AAPL is actually lagging the Nasdaq for a rare change, well shy of a key resistance that will determine whether the stock is headed for a moon shot to 152. It is currently trading for around 117, but the bullish trigger point at 127.53 lies 11 points above, or 9.1%. By contrast, the QQQ, an ETF proxy for the Nasdaq 100, need only rally a further 1.4% to reach a comparable benchmark at 286.20, a midpoint Hidden Pivot. My guess is that the manic energy of Freaky Friday will get it there, but I'll be curious to see whether DaBoyz can close the Cubes above it. If so, it will give them a running start when index futures begin to trade again on Sunday night.

The Hidden Pivot Method affords us a means of accurately predicting the end point of a rally or decline. Using these price targets in conjunction with certain types of option spreads, most particularly butterfly spreads, can provide considerable leverage. That's because butterflys targeted on distant strikes can return as much as $50 for each dollar wagered if the target is reached within the time frame estimated. This lesson is a primer for Pivoteers eager to take advantage of such opportunities.

The most bearish thing you could say about the stock market these days is that it has been damn near impossible to short. Perhaps it's for the better where bears are concerned. The chart above shows how the QQQs, an ETF proxy for the Nasdaq 100, have turned what could have become a bearish head-and-shoulders pattern into a broad, bullish accumulation zone. This is not to say stocks can't possibly tank, but if they do, few bears will have survived to enjoy the ride. AAPL, the most institutionally beloved stock in the history of the world, has traced out a similar pattern, one that could become a base for a shot at $152 (a Hidden Pivot target). That would represent a 31% move from the current $116. This of course means the broad averages are about to move significantly higher as well, although probably not as steeply as the steroid-fed AAPL.

Investors took no discernible position ahead of the debate, allowing stocks to slosh around the whole day and to close near the middle of their range. Even if you could be sure of the outcome, how would you have bet it?  The pundits seem to think Biden could benefit from low expectations if he gets through the evening with no serious mental lapses. But would that be good for stocks' For America? Trump could surprise merely by being tactful if his opponent stumbles badly: "Senator, if you need a moment to compose yourself, there's no hurry." If Biden unexpectedly runs steady as a Dodge Dart on 84 octane, it could knock Trump off-balance. Anything more than a glancing blow might send the incumbent reeling. As entertainment, the best the audience can hope for is a lot of low blows and eye gouging. Moderator Chris Wallace, the Fox News personality least despised by his counterparts at CNN and MSNBC, has a chance to keep it clean. If he succeeds too well, perhaps Jerry Springer will have a turn at the next debate? Isn't that what America has wanted all along?

December Silver's failure to reach the bearish target at 21.50 shown in the chart is encouraging. The pattern is clean and compelling, if somewhat  gnarly, and the target should therefore have been achieved if sellers had good command of the board. The fact that they evidently don't is bullish by implication, and that means this rally is probably no worse than an even bet to probe resistance between $27 and $29 that accumulated over the last six weeks of summer. A pop on Thursday above 25.30 would all but clinch that scenario. _______ UPDATE (Sep 30, 5:55 p.m.ET): The futures went the wrong way, but this did not diminish the so-so odds of a pop above 25.30.

Gold wasn't quite believing the weakness in the dollar or it would have racked up an even bigger gain on the day. Even so, each of the three upthrusts that occurred Tuesday exceeded a prior peak, refreshing the bullishness of the intraday charts and suggesting that higher prices lie ahead. By day's end, the December contract had slightly exceeded a 1904.20 target I posted in the chat room. This was neither bullish nor bearish, but the so-far shallow pullback to 1899.60 is. Let's see how bulls do over the next day or two dealing with thick supply between here and 1925.00. _______ UPDATE (Oct 1, 6:07 p.m. ET): Just a little more push will connect with the 1921.90 Hidden Pivot target shown in this chart. A decisive move past it on first contact would be bullish.

The Dollar Index poked tentatively above a Hidden Pivot target I'd flagged at 94.61 on Friday, but bulls will need to put a little more gusto into it to show they are capable of taking DXY to 100 and beyond. To be sure, September's steep rally has earned a rest. But if new multi-year highs are coming, the pauses should be brief if not necessarily gentle. Indeed, a steep dive followed by an equally sharp recovery would be the best evidence we've had to date that the rally is for real; that's how bull markets behave. In the meantime, we'll take the smaller, bullish patterns as they come. The one in motion now,  begun from 93.93 on 9/23, target 94.85 on the hourly chart. It can be bought 'mechanically' on a pullback to p=94.52, stop 94.30; or to x=94.36, stop 94.18. _______ UPDATE (Sep 29, 4:19 p.m. ET): Bulls had an opportunity to turn things around, but the bounce from a distinctive Hidden Pivot target at 93.84 couldn't get past even a single 'external' peak. Now, the likelihood is that DXY will grope and stumble its way down to lows near 93.50 recorded last week. Alternatively, it would take a pop above 94.30 to reignited the bull trend begun on September 1.

Friday's short-squeeze tripped a 'weak' mechanical short at p=3275.50, stop 3323.50, but there was no compelling reason to get short ahead of the weekend. Another short of comparable risk would be signaled if the bounce continues to the green line, x=3347.50. This is a so-so opportunity because the A-B impulse leg created between 9/3 and 9/9 was not especially strong. In practice, we can do the trade anyway, but using an rABC set-up on a chart of lesser degree to trigger an entry.  As it stands, the theoretical risk using a full-level stop-loss is about $2500 per contract.  The goal is D=3131.50, and it still looks like no worse than an even shot to be achieved. However, all bets are off if the futures take a lunatic leap exceeding 3363.00 Sunday night or Monday. That's equal to an 'external' peak recorded 9/18 on the way down. ______ UPDATE (Sep 29, 4:24 p.m.): Ha-ha. The little wiseguy popped to 3363.00 exactly, implying that a 'mechanical' short at the green line was still not a bad bet to hit 3131.50.  We'll shun the E-mini's  rattlesnake charm for now while retaining a mildly bearish bias. Alternatively, a move above 3363.00 and bears would be toast. _______ UPDATE (Sep 30, 6:07): Looks like bears are toast, although the 45-point pullback from an intraday peak at 3384.00 well above our toast threshold suggests there are too many bulls to make this hoax waft higher without occasional labor-intensive inputs. The best bears can hope for is for the futures to merely flail around before the next short squeeze. ______ UPDATE (Oct 1, 6:13 p.m.): There are still too many bulls, and they wheezed all day, failing to improve much on the short-squeeze rally they'd been gifted with overnight. That's why my bias for Friday will be

The upward blip at week's end did little to alleviate gold's distress. Continue to use D=1838.30 as a minimum downside objective -- and yes, you can attempt tighty stopped bottom-fishing there, especially if you've made a few bucks on the way down. December Gold's interaction with D is bound to be telling, since the target is so clear and compelling. A decisive penetration to the downside would be bearish, and a two-day close beneath it still moreso. Alternatively, if bulls are about to turn things around, the process would begin with a pop above 1898.30. This is equal to an 'external' peak a tad higher than the one given here earlier.