Rick Ackerman

The bullish pattern shown in the chart is so clear and compelling that even a relatively small thrust above it such has occurred would imply that new record highs are coming. This would hold true even if the futures take out the 10358 low recorded last Tuesday. In fact, it would require a plunge all the way down to 9728 to generate an impulse leg strong enough to turn the daily chart bearish. We should keep an open mind in any case, but we'll look for ways to go bottom-fishing next week if the futures gift us with weakness.  Alternatively, if there is strength we'll look to get short, since I strongly doubt the futures are ready for a sustained rally. _____ UPDATE (Jul 20, 9:19 p.m. EDT): The 11688 target shown in this chart seems very ambitious, but given the rabid obsession with supposedly pandemic-proof tech stocks, we shouldn't be surprised if it's achieved by week's end. The pattern looks like a good bet to work for 'mechanical' setups, but I doubt we'll be gifted with the kind of pullback it would require to trigger us in. Accordingly, we'll look for smaller stuff on the way up, catch-as-catch can. _______ UPDATE (Jul 21, 6:54 pm.) Bulls chickened out three ticks shy of a new record high, then acquiesced in a nearly 300-point pullback. This is odd behavior for this vehicle, which is so hopped up on meth that nothing should stop it. Let's see what TSLA earnings due out Wednesday bring.

Bulls hung tough all week against an onslaught of ugly pandemic headlines, so we'll continue to use the 273.14 midpoint pivot shown in the chart as a minimum upside objective for the near term. DIA will need to achieve more loft, however, before I could recommend placing a 'mechanical' bid at the green line in anticipation of a swoon. It there is no such retracement and this vehicle achieves 273.14 more or less straightaway, you can short there using put options. Specifically, I'll recommend buying the first strike priced under $1.00, with an expiration no farther out than 7-10 days. The trade should be initiated only with DIA within 0.06 points of the target. Stop yourself out if the options subsequently trade for a third less than you paid for them. ______ UPDATE (Jul 30, 2:53 p.m. ET): Zzzzz. I'm as bored with the 273.14 rally target as you are, but with bears unable to do more than minor damage, it's the only logical target we've got.

You've got to wonder how many of the institutional geniuses who are buying TSLA now at $15oo a share shunned it back in March at $350 and had a dozen reasons for doing so. No question, the outlook for sales has improved dramatically. But it could not possibly have improved enough to justify the apparent consolidation that seems to be occurring near $1500. How do we know portfolio managers have decided Tesla shares offer good value at these levels? Simply because after creating a monstrous spike to $1800 a week ago, the stock sold off for all of one day; then, instead of gyrating wildly to get its bearings, it simply leveled off at $1500 as though every fund guy in the world had a bid there for the duration. Earnings will be out this week, but it seems DaBoyz have made their decision no matter what the data say. If the nuttiness produces a new record high, we'll be ready to short it. ______ UPDATE (Jul 20, 9:30): The imminent impalement of shorts on earnings news due out Wednesday seems so likely that perhaps I should be more cautious about pushing out the 1914.64 target shown in this chart. But I won't, since it's probably not worth the bother. The company is certain to report a profit because it will qualify them for inclusion in the S&P 500. Although it's usually disappointing when companies report making money because it tethers their shares to an earnings multiple, Tesla is probably going to soar anyway because it is not bound by the usual rules. _______ UPDATE (Jul 21, 6:59 p.m.): The stock was unusually subdued, perhaps because traders have already anticipated to death a fourth straight profitable quarter and Tesla's induction into the S&P 500.

AAPL's initial bounce after getting sold hard last Monday looked distributive, but when the stock leveled off to finish the week just below the midpoint of the selloff, it was warning bears not to get too comfortable. I'll need to see a couple more days of price action to determine who are the patsies-- bulls or bears -- but my bias for the moment is with the former, since the stock's swings from Tuesday on failed to generate any bearish impulse legs even on the lowly 15-minute chart. We'll simply observe for now until we get more clarity or perhaps even a fat pitch. _______ UPDATE (Jul 20, 9:43 p.m. EDT): I usually wait until a stock has demolished a midpoint resistance before I signal the all-clear to its corresponding D target, but why wait. Here's a chart that shows a logical path to 424.05, about 8% above these levels, and there's no good reason to think it won't be reached. When it happens, the geniuses who have been riding the move while touting AAPL to their clients will be about $21 billion richer. The only way we will be able to trade the move is via mechanical entries, so stay tuned to the chat room if you care.

Stocks have arguably never been more vulnerable than they are now. We need only ponder Tesla's chart to understand how Wednesday's highs may have marked a very important top. I'd expected the broad averages to hang tough as the week drew to a close, but their modest bounce on Thursday provided barely enough loft for a modest distribution. DaBoyz will pull out all the stops to keep up appearances on Friday, but however successful the effort, the market will need to fall far enough to test late June's lows before it is even capable of a sustained rally, never mind psychotic leap.  Friday's price action will tell us whether bears have grown comfortable with holding short positions over the weekend. My gut feeling is that increasingly grim news concerning the pandemic is about to overtake an absurdly optimistic vaccine story as the focus of investors' attention. They have gotten so very much so wrong already that it has only been a matter of time before the irresistible force of Fed funny money meets the immovable object of economic reality.

Any time the Dow isn't up a least 400-500 points, you've got to wonder what's troubling investors. The news environment was favorable, at least by Wall Street's current, bizarro standard, since the pandemic appears to be raging out of control.  California has locked down tightly for the second time, and because of the state's outsize impact on the U.S. economy, that too must be regarded as bullish news, since it means the Fed will be stimulating harder than ever to keep the illusory,  financialized part of the economy lookin' good.  There was hope for working stiffs as well, since their $600 weekly unemployment bonus is about to run out at the end of the month. Their plight will give Democrats and Republicans a rare chance to come together, since buying votes with direct infusions of cash is about as bipartisan as legislation gets. It surely warms the heart to see that there are issues on which Pelosi and Mitch McConnell can agree.

Wacky price action can be leveraged using mechanical entries based on the pattern show in the chart. Wednesday's low missed filling a bid at the green line, but if the futures return there it would still be a decent bet, stop 1791.00.  The implied entry risk is more than $4000 on four contracts, so we'll want to cut it down to size using the lesser charts 'camouflage'-style if the opportunity arises. The 1875.20 target of a larger pattern remains viable, but we're taking it one step at a time since gold has shown no signs of becoming a friendly buy-and-hold. More like Chinese water-torture, actually. _______  UPDATE (July 16, 8:50 p.m. EDT):  Gold was more than mildly disappointing today, although its mini-plunge failed to stop out the mechanical bid I'd noted above. With no drama indicated on the chart, I'll suggest watching from the sidelines for now. I'll be curious myself to see whether the trade works.  The tactic is geared to exploiting violent swings, not the kind of gratuitous, sloppy meandering we've become used to in gold.

I've tried to be extravagant with my rally targets, since I don't want the permabear in me to queer profit opportunities just because the stock market has been rallying against every molecule of instinct I possess. But I could scarcely have imagined that when I put out a technically derived 1803.69 rally target for Tesla Sunday night that lay 255 points above the stock's previous close (see chart above), the stock would summit this Everest the next morning. As the chart shows, the forecast didn't do too badly, since the stock topped Monday just four-tenths of a percent below the target before relapsing an exhilarating 300 points.  In my TSLA 'tout' (see below), I'd noted that an 1803 top might actually disappoint some investors who think in nice, round numbers. $1800 is so close to $2000, how can the stock possibly miss, right? But it may actually have done so, since the large number of bulls who got badly trapped when TSLA plummeted from its fleeting high now constitute huge, and perhaps increasingly desperate, source of supply. If TSLA is to exceed Monday's peak eventually, it is likely to entail more of a struggle than we've become used to. AAPL, the second biggest-cap stock in the world, performed with similarly reckless abandon, blowing away a seemingly ambitious target at 391.08 by nearly $9.  This would have put about $40 billion of fresh paper profits into the hands of those with sufficient daring to still be aboard. Much as we'd all like to think anyone holding onto TSLA and AAPL at these levels shares DNA with a hubcap, it's hard to argue with the estimated $40 billion they made on paper.  Of course, they'll have to sell the stock sooner or later to realize those gains, and they'd better not all

GDX looks like a very good bet to achieve the 45.71 target shown in the chart. If it reaches this Hidden Pivot resistance, that would represent a gain of about 19% from current levels.  The impulse leg from 23 to 27 in April/May was sufficiently steep to imply that we could use any pullback from a Hidden Pivot level to the one beneath it as a 'mechanical' buying opportunity. This seems unlikely at the moment, however, since bulls appear to be consolidating above the red line, a midpoint support at 38.47. We may be able to use a smaller AB segment, the one that occurred  between June 26 and July 9, to fashion a relatively low-risk entry opportunity, and that's where we can focus intraday. ______ UPDATE (July 15, 9:16 p.m.): Several subscribers have jumped in after pondering my bullish target, but don't expect an easy ride. I'd suggest staying closely in touch in the chat room to help manage position risk. ______ UPDATE (Jul 21, 7:10 p.m.): A secondary Hidden Pivot resistance at 42.09 lies just inches way, but GDX will have to push decisively past it to lock up a further move to D=45.71. Here's the chart. ______ UPDATE (Jul 29, 8:15 p.m.): A pullback to p2=42.09 would offer a decent bet, stop 40.88, for 'mechanical' buyers. I mentioned this in the Trading Room today and it will remain viable unless 44.12 is exceeded to the upside. ______ UPDATE (Jul 30, 2:57 p.m.): Only one person reported doing the mechanical traded detailed above, so I have not established a tracking position. I will paper-trade this one nonetheless, lowering the stop-loss to 40.20. just beneath a key low made last week.