The secondary Hidden Pivot at 288.22 shown in the chart will make a serviceable upside target for the next 2-3 weeks, although we should avoid the temptation of drooling over the prospect of getting short there. I'll be more inclined to recommend it if we can get make a few bucks on the way up. The best way to do this will be to catch a swing low intraday, possibly on an opening-bar bull trap. Watch this space and the Trading Room if you're interested. _______ UPDATE (July 14, 7:52 p.m.): So eager were buyers to come charging out of the chute this morning that there was almost no follow-through to Monday's hard sell-off. DIA now looks bound for the 273.14 midpoint pivot of this chart, at least, but the D target at 297.18 would become an odds-on bet following a decisive push past p. Here's the chart. _______ UPDATE (Jul 16, 9:08 p.m.): The rally sevened out nearly three points beneath the 273.14, implying buyers are getting fatigued. Let's see if they get second wind ahead of the weekend.
The Naz would fall about 5% short of doubling off the March 23 low if it achieves the 12529 target shown, but who could possibly be disappointed? It would become a talking point for Campaign Trump, even though even Joe Sixpack must understand by now that the rally is, to put it mildly, unwarranted. An interesting technical aspect of the chart is that if speculators defer for a couple of months to the resurgence of the pandemic, sending this hoax spiraling down to x=8103, that would set up a 'mechanical' buy of the back-up-the-truck kind. To speak of boarding at these levels is overreach, since we'd be in the midst of a stampede that favors only buffaloes that are able to run to the horizon without tiring. ______ UPDATE (Jul 13, 9:45): Today's wicked reversal will have caught most investors with their pants down while also scaring the crap out of them. Look for them to attempt distribution on weak buying, and to grow increasingly desperate over the next few days. Prices will be significantly lower a week from now. _______ UPDATE (Jul 14, 8:07 p.m. EDT): The herd reversed Monday's selling in the first hour, and then it was off to the races. Their binge took an added, manic leap as the night session began, warning bears to get out of the way and challenging any trader or investor looking for an easy out to "make my day." A minor, uptrending pattern (5-min, A=10,525 at 3:20 p.m.) as we went to press projected to D=10,799.25 and should be considered by night owls looking for a way to get aboard. ______ UPDATE (Jul 15, 9:30); Nice try, fellas, but today's dirigible ride failed by more than 30 points to achieve the 10799 target. I've emphasized the downside in this chart accordingly,
The by-now familiar 3392.75 targets looks capable of turning back the stampede, if only perhaps temporarily. It's not quite a lock, however, given that it has taken this gas-bag a month to break out above the 3158 midpoint pivot. Expect a balky move to D over the next several weeks. If the futures should surprise by falling apart on increasingly grim pandemic news, you should view it as a buying opportunity. Armageddon, on the other hand, could slow the ascent, but there might still be buying opportunities ahead of Earth's being returned to a molten state. _______ UPDATE (Jul 14, 8:27 p.m. EDT): The brute power of today's turnaround justifies using the 3275.00 secondary pivot shown in the chart as a minimum upside projection for the near term. ______ UPDATE (Jul 16, 9:45 p.m.): The immediate trajectory is bullish, but only faintly so. Use this pattern to trade ES on Friday, but you can adjust the point 'C' downward if necessary.
Gold's bullish slog has been tortuous, even if there has never been much doubt about where it's headed. The chart shows an 1875.20 target for the August contract that we've used to stay on the right side of the market and to keep the many setbacks along the way in perspective. A pullback to the red line at 1771.80 would set up a tempting 'mechanical' buying opportunity, but we shouldn't expect the market to oblige just because we've proven our patience. We'll continue to scalp off the Hidden Pivot levels with timely posts in the chat room, but getting a piece of the final thrust to D won't be easy because gold is finally attracting its fair share of bulls. _______ UPDATE (Jul 14, 8:42 p.m. EDT): The pattern shown in this chart, with a target at 1825.90, can be used to get aboard as the futures slowly make their way toward the more ambitious target flagged above. The A-B impulse leg is not exactly a killer, but it looks strong enough to favor mechanical entries on pullbacks to any of the three Hidden Pivot levels: p, p2 or D. Stay tuned to the chat room for timely ideas.
Tesla's explosive rally last week stalled almost precisely at the midpoint Hidden Pivot of a pattern projecting to 1803.69. Investors and thrill-seekers focused on the round number $2000 may find the shortfall disappointing, but the target looks like a decent bet to cap one of the most insane short squeezes in the crazy history of the stock market. All three levels -- p, p2 and D -- will be in play for purposes of getting aboard, or possible getting short, so stay tuned to the Trading Room for timely updates. Newcomers in particular should pay close attention to the way 'mechanical' trades help us tame and exploit the most rabid beasts. ______ UPDATE (Jul 13, 9:51): I hadn't imagined TSLA would reach my seemingly ambitious target in a single day, but it did. The fleeting top just 0.4% from my target gave way to a stunning reversal that is going to leave bulls not just cautious, but fearful. Look for weak, distributive action this week, turning increasingly urgent by week's end. ______ UPDATE (Jul 14, 8:49 p.m. EDT): Bulls stood their ground, settling into a tight range that looked more like accumulation than distribution. The implication is that they will soon be ready to romp again, and to challenge Monday's absurd, bull-trap peak without losing more than a step or two. Crazy! ______ UPDATE (Jul 15, 9:47 p.m.): Bulls were not as impressive as I'd expected, possibly because there was too much buying interest at the open to take the stock down and deplete sellers. Look for sloppy price action, possibly mutating into distribution, over the next day or two.
The chart show an unachieved rally target at 391.08 that looks very likely to be achieved within a day or two. Last week's gap through the midpoint pivot all but clinched the move, and the consolidation just above it sweetens the odds of a profitable short when AAPL gets there. Since we are jumping in the path of a speeding freight train, you should risk no more on options than you could part with painlessly. I'd recommend buying soon-to-expire puts that are selling for under $1.00. If the target is hit today, the July 17 370 puts should fit our needs. ______ UPDATE (Jul 13, 9:58 p.m.): The early-morning spike 2% above such a clear Hidden Pivot target as 391.08 suggests bulls are not yet finished, but they will struggle mightily to make any headway over the next 3-5 days, if not longer. There's a lot of ruin in an empire, as the saying goes, so don't count out this hoax quite yet. _______ UPDATE (Jul 14, 9:08 p.m.): Bulls struggled, although not mightily as I'd expected. Rising from the canvas after taking what should have been a knockout blow on Monday, they looked jaunty enough to push toward a 399.78, midpoint resistance that would tie the all-time high at $400 recorded just two days ago. ______ UPDATE (Jul 15, 9:52 p.m.): The stock's engineered leap on the opening bar came within spitting distance of the 399.78 target, but it turned into a bull trap when AAPL relapsed $11 over the next two hours. This is distributive behavior, although I stop short of suggesting that leveraging the downside will be easy. My own target price for getting short would be around 398.25, possibly using a 'reverse' ABC pattern. I'm prepared, however, to see the stock get nowhere near this threshold, which is
[A friend who made his fortune in the laundry business has enjoyed enviable returns on his nest egg by staying fully invested in stocks. The following is a personal letter from his financial advisor telling him why, even after the stock market's spectacular run-up since late March, he should stay in equities. The advisor's list of pros and cons nicely sums up the thinking of many advisors with wealthy clients, and that's why I am presenting it here. RA] Doomsayers always sound smart. I know a few of them who have been wrong for 28 of the last 30 years. I have been positioned very cautiously myself but not outright bearish (thank god, since I would have lost a fortune). Right now I like utilities (defensive, cheap-ish, unloved). I like some healthcare stocks (but worry about the election impacts). I like gold. It's hard not to want to continue to own Amazon, too, and I do. I'm short regional banks because if there are economic issues it will be in loan markets and in real estate and small-to-medium size businesses. That will hurt the regional banks. I do not own puts on any major equity indices. Volatility is elevated and it's just not a cheap hedge. I am short some credit but the Fed backstop makes it a bad hedge, too. But I honestly don't think we have a big market selloff ahead for a few reasons. We should be bullish now, and here are some reasons: 1) the Fed has your back with easy monetary policy; 2) Big Government has your back with more fiscal stimulus; and 3) investors are not long. Positioning isn't a substantial risk. For example, in March everyone was long. So there was a lot of selling by lots of different kinds of funds. Last
A 385.48 rally target aired here last week caught the top of today's rally within 21 cents, allowing at least one subscriber to get short at the top. There may have been others with similar reports, but a server problem that persisted for the entire day prevented any discussion of it in the Trading Room. I won't establish a tracking position unless I hear from a few more of you, but you should be aware nonetheless that a thrust above Thursday's high would portend more likely upside to the 398.46 target shown in the chart. The pattern looks too obvious to work with the kind of precision we have come to expect, but it is almost certain to show tradeable stopping power, since it maxes out ABC patterns on the daily chart. Whatever happens, as I never tire of reminding you, as AAPL goes, so goes the stock market (notwithstanding today's anomalous divergence). I will continue to track AAPL closely for that reason, so stay tuned for updates intraday.
The vertical ascent of Apple shares has been especially noteworthy because it is the second most valuable company in the world, just behind Saudi Aramco. When the stock rises just a few points, it puts billions of extra dollars in shareholders' pockets. And when it hangs tough on days like today, with the Dow Industrials getting sacked for a 361-point loss, it fortifies portfolio managers' resolve to stay aboard come hell or high water. They were surely pleased by Thursday's price action: Apple's modest, $2.20 gain was worth $9.3 billion -- enough to fill 147 swimming pools measuring 28' x 14' x 6.5' with tightly packed dollar bills. As a wealth engine, even RCA (aka 'Radio'), Wall Street's most spectacular performer before the 1929 crash, pales in comparison. When Apple shares take wing, it is like watching a 200,000-ton cruise ship rising from the sea on hydrofoils at 70 knots. No stock this big has ever climbed so steeply. Of course, the higher AAPL goes, the more money it takes merely to keep it aloft, never mind push it higher. Like a rocket ship approaching the speed of light, however, it will gain infinite mass before it reaches that threshold. And so shall AAPL. At some level there won't be enough buyers to push it higher. Hell or high water will have arrived, and AAPL, like world-beater RCA before it, will fall to depths few could imagine today.
