Rick Ackerman

Bulls have struggled for three weeks to punch through the 3168 midpoint Hidden Pivot shown in the chart, but they have been going at it more aggressively lately and look like a good bet to succeed. If and when the futures close for two consecutive days above the pivot, or exceed it by more than 50 points, a finishing stroke to D=3392 target would become an odds-on bet. In the meantime, a swoon to x=3041.00, the green line, would trigger a mechanical buy, stop 2923.50. This trade carries entry risk of $6000 per contract, so we will look for ways to cut that by perhaps 90% if the opportunity arises. Stay tuned. ______ UPDATE (Jul 9, 9:45 p.m.): Bulls are struggling for altitude under the weight of pandemic news that is more than a little discouraging . The futures would nonetheless become a fetching mechanical buy on a pullback to x=3041.00, stop 2923.50.

Short-covering last week effortlessly shredded an 1142 Hidden Pivot resistance on the weekly chart, telegraphing the blow-off that has followed. It will likely terminate at or near the 1267.89 target shown, and I would therefore suggest using that Hidden Pivot as a minimum upside projection for now. It is sufficiently clear and compelling for us to infer that a move past it is unlikely if not impossible. When big-picture targets are exceeded as has occurred here, the logical and practical alternative is to derive a new target from an extension of a smaller pattern. Subscribers who bought Sep 18 560/600/640 put butterfly spreads near 1142 for $1.00 or less should consider buying more of them at 1267 at a different level. They should be pegged this time to the 800 strike, September expiration.  Consider wider spreads, such as the 18 Sept 700/800/900 put butterfly, which can currently be acquired for under $3.50 and has the potential to widen to $100. (Note: This would entail selling two 800 puts and buying one 700 put and a 900 put for a net debit of $3.50 or less. This trade is recommended only for experienced option traders. If you leg into it, buy the 900/800 spread first, 1:1, with TSLA near 1267; then short the 800/700 spread after the stock falls from 1267, as we expect. Obviously, there is always a chance TSLA is on its way to $1500 or higher.)_______ UPDATE (July 6, 5:54 a.m. EDT): All bets are off. The stock has gapped up through the 1267 pivot in pre-dawn trading, headed perhaps to a minimum 1337, or even 1479. These targets can be found by sliding 'A' down to 468.39 on April 3. _______ UPDATE (July 7, 8:25 p.m.): Tesla failed to open on a gap for a change, but it

Each of us seeks our own version of the truth when we turn on the news. Tucker Carlson, one of the most courageous and honest journalists of this era, is my choice. He has excoriated Democrats and Republicans alike for their moral cowardice in coddling torch mobs. I can’t get my liberal friends to watch him, however, probably for the same reasons they could never get me to watch Rachel Maddow.  It’s true that Carlson used to give snarky interviews to political radicals whom he never took seriously. But he takes them very seriously now because of the grave threat they have come to pose to individual freedom and to the American experiment itself. I do wonder sometimes what Maddow has been saying about Biden’s supposedly big lead in the polls. This is about as unbelievable as headlines get these days, although it hasn't stopped Fox News and its chief political analyst, Karl Rove, from taking the surveys seriously. The network’s mostly conservative viewers scoff at such twaddle, having learned their lesson when Hillary’s widely predicted victory in 2016 failed to materialize. This time the polls are wrong simply because the news media and the popular culture have bullied millions of Trump voters into silence. There are many quiet converts going uncounted as well. They include not only a significant number of Jews I know who a year ago could not have imagined themselves ever voting for a Republican, but also some well-closeted apostates in Boulder and San Francisco, where I lived, respectively, for 19 and 22 years. Civil War Coming? More unbelievable than Biden’s strong poll numbers are unemployment data that suggest the country is in a strong economic recovery. Trump never tires of telling us how super-amazingly strong it is, but many if not most Americans probably reject

It looked liked bulls would romp ahead of the holiday weekend, but they grew increasingly cautious as the day wore on and eventually pulled back 20 points shy of the 3175.50 target shown. They were rightfully concerned about the strongly resurgent pandemic and even more fearful that news over three-day weekend would worsen. Even if it does, expect the lunatics to be out in force on Monday, trashing common sense and brimming with confidence that short-covering will keep stocks moving higher.  Ordinarily we'd have been bidding on the pullback to the red line (p=3119.13) , stop 3100.30, but not just ahead of a long weekend. Traders could still attempt the 'mechanical' buy if index futures open soft on Sunday evening, but it would be less risky to wait for a pullback to x=3090.14 to go bottom-fishing. Here's a bigger picture that shows why Thursday's stampede halted exactly where it did. The 3392.75 rally target may seem surreal, but it could become an odds-on bet, depending on how the lunatics handle the 3158.25 midpoint Hidden Pivot.

AAPL was a rare laggard last week, gaining a mere 3% while the Nasdaq 100 rose 5%. Even so, there is no reason to think it will not lead the next stampede, or that it will fail to achieve the 378.51 target shown in the chart. This is based on a smaller pattern than the one yielding a 385.48 projection we used last week, but it looks more tradeable. Specifically, a pullback to the green line would trigger a 'mechanical' buy at 358.09, stop 351.28, risking a theoretical $2728 on four round lots. We'll look for ways to cut the initial risk by perhaps 70%-80% if the opportunity should arise, but under no circumstances should you treat x=358.09 as a likely place for a bullish reversal. It is not in fact a Hidden Pivot support or resistance, just a reference point for certain types of trades that we do. ______ UPDATE (Jul 7, 8:52 p.m.): AAPL fell more than $6 after coming within a dime of the 378.51 target drum-rolled above. Since no one mentioned this in the chat room, I will assume that trading interest in the stock is nil.

I predicted a two-week slog to the 1875.20 rally target shown in the chart, but the futures just blew an entire week screwing the pooch, so it could take significantly longer for the move to pan out.  A pullback to x=1720.10 would trip a 'mechanical' buy, stop 1668.30, but we'll be looking for opportunities in the week ahead to get aboard small patterns that have correspondingly lower entry risk. This could happen as early as Sunday evening if the August contract pushes above the 'external' peak at 1797.90 recorded Wednesday in the throes of a $40 dive. _______ UPDATE (Jul 6, 9:23 p.m.): The futures have popped through a clear midpoint resistance tonight, putting p2=1800.90 in play as a minimum upside target for the near term. If they get past it as well, especially with a decisive thrust, that would imply additional upside to at least D=1805.00.  _______ UPDATE (Jul 7, 8:58 p.m.): Use this chart, which shows an 1820 target, as your road map for the near term. The futures narrowly missed tripping a mechanical buy at the green line with the swoon to 1781 at dawn. _____ UPDATE (Jul 9, 9:41 p.m.): Rallies continue to exceed minor Hidden Pivot targets, including one at 1827.40 that I posted in the Trading Room on Wednesday. This suggests the rally is healthy and sustainable and that pullbacks should be bought. In gold in particular this is always going to be tricky, so I'd suggest staying close to the Trading Room if you want a piece of the action and a relatively low-risk entry spot.

Judging from the way bulls blew past p=10,192 midpoint resistance last week, there can be little doubt that they will reach the 10,656 target shown.  The impulse leg is strong enough that we could consider a 'mechanical' bid on a pullback to p, using a 10,038 stop-loss. Since that would risk an initial $12,320 theoretical on four contracts, we'll need to look for an alternative entry tactic that would cut that by perhaps 90%. Using call options in QQQ would be the cheapest way to go, but you should let me do the interpolating when the time comes. ______ UPDATE (Jul 7 9:02 p.m.): The futures fell nearly 200 points after recording a high inches above the 10,656 target. The penetration of this Hidden Pivot resistance to the upside implies the weakness that followed is merely corrective.  _______ UPDATE (Jul 9, 9:55 p.m.): The odd pattern shown in this chart is all we've got at the moment, but its 10858 target looks good enough for government work. That means taking a small, speculative put position if and when the futures get with 4-10 point of the target.  You can interpolate using QQQ, which has an equivalent target at 264.56. 

I'd suggested buying July puts expiring next Friday (July 17)  for under $1.00 if DIA rallied to 260.88. This was a difficult trade, since the opening bar occurred on a gap past that number, followed by an hour of hovering that pushed the July 17 240 puts from $1.02 in the first minute to as low as 0.60.  I'll establish a tracking position if I hear from at least two subscribers who got short on my say-so.  Although DIA subsequently dove to as low as 257.88, the puts lost juice ahead of the three-day weekend and traded no higher than 1.18.  They are keepers, nonetheless, since DaBoyz are unlikely to open index futures higher on Sunday night after traders have had a three-day weekend to steep in grim pandemic news. The lunatics will likely be over it by late Monday or Tuesday, but probably not in time to deflate any puts you may have bought as last week drew to a close. _______ UPDATE (July 6, 6:15 a.m. EDT): The usual lunatics and thieves have joined forces Sunday night, goosing index futures into a steep climb. This means DIA will open on a gap equating to a perhaps 400-point gain in the Dow. The short position will remain theoretically viable nonetheless until such time as DIA trades above 267.14. _______ UPDATE (Jul 7, 9:05 p.m.): The short is now profitable, but it was difficult to tell how many subscribers got on board with puts and at what price. I'll track four @ 0.65 as reported by one subscriber, but please let me know if you did better or worse and I'll average the prices. Offer two to close for twice what you paid for them, good-till-canceled.

I've been wondering what might provide the catalyst to push the Dow above 30,000, and this may be it, from Bloomberg:  "A strain of virus spreading in Chinese pigs has shown it can also infect humans, with researchers suggesting that another pathogen with pandemic potential waits in the wings behind Covid-19." There's no telling how much stimulus we'd see if a new virus takes wing before we've dealt with Covid-19. For starters, the Fed might bring interest rates down to, oh, minus 3 or 4 percent. Bank loan officers would be giving away toasters and Cuisinarts at that point just to have us take thick stacks of $100 bills off their hands. The credit blowout could be coupled with a moratorium on taxes for 2020 and beyond, and the $600 unemployment bonus could be doubled or tripled. Checks would go out weekly, and not just for six months but indefinitely. Black Rock could step up its purchase of corporate bonds for The Government's portfolio to include debt issued by strip malls, restaurants, movie theaters, bait & tackle shops, rugby clubs and accredited PTA organizations. 'Wall Street for Pelosi!' The stimulus we've tried so far has been pretty stingy, actually. We should follow Pelosi's lead on this, because she is the Democrat most capable of attracting the support Congress will require to give the economy the shot in the arm it so desperately needs. She is the true Wall Street candidate for 2020, even if few realize it yet. This would also be a terrific opportunity to provide an extra dose of "special" stimulus that millions of homeowners will surely appreciate: new roofs for everyone! Insurers have grown increasingly stingy with hail-damage and hurricane claims at a time when the number of homeowners needing new roofs has soared. The U.S. Army