Rick Ackerman

The chart implies that I am cautiously bullish, but that's a small exaggeration. The recent dip below 1800 seems to have exhausted sellers for the time being. However,  bulls, such as they are, appear to lack the energy or enthusiasm for turning things around.  For starters, they would need to surpass early May's 1917.60 peak to generate a bullish impulse leg on the daily chart. In the meantime, there's no point getting excited about gold's prospects until this happens. A relapse that breaches the 1792.00 low would have very bearish implications. Alternatively, if gold shocks with a powerful rally that blows up p=1937.20, we could justifiably take an earnest interest in the 2082.30 target, which is theoretically in play because the green line has been touched.

I'm using a more conservative pattern than in gold to project higher prices, since the May bottom at 20.42 was even more dispiriting than the corresponding one in AU.  So far, the most bullish thing you could say about the rally is that it did not give us an opportunity last week to bottom-fish 'mechanically' at the green line. On the other hand, penetration of p=22.17 to the upside has been tentative and labored so far, implying that even the relatively modest 'D' target at 29.93 is not a done deal. I will provide trading suggestions if there appears to be interest in bullion in the chat room, but I am available to vet your ideas in any case.

AAPL got pounded Friday, but it would take another drubbing to bring it down to the green line at 139.99, where the stock would become an enticing 'mechanical' buy, stop 132.60. There would be no guarantee of a rebound to D=162.12, since the uptrend begun two weeks ago has struggled to get clear of the midpoint Hidden Pivot resistance, 147.37. I suggest watching from the sidelines for a couple of days, since getting aboard in a place other than the green line would be labor intensive.

Five weeks of tedium have etched a picture of distribution on the daily chart (inset), presumably culminating with a dive at any time to the 108.74 target of the pattern shown. This suggests that my forecast for a major top in Ten Year rates at 3.24% may eventually be borne out. The so-far high at 3.17 reached on May 9 was close enough for us to have considered the target fulfilled. However, we should keep an open mind toward the possibility of a head fake corresponding to an important peak in rates. If so, it would portend deepening recession for the U.S. and the world. ______ UPDATE (Jun 13, 10:53 a.m.): I've adjusted the target upward to 3.56 using a less gnarly pattern in $TNX.X, a vehicle that tracks interest rates tied to the Ten-Year Note.

I have little to say about Bertie, other than that it continues to be as interesting as a bowl of grits. Bitcoin's deep-pocketed sponsors seem capable of maintaining a cruising altitude just below $30k indefinitely, and of popping it a few thou whenever conditions are right and they feel like mau-mauing skeptics. Although the May 12 spike down to $25k generated a quite powerful impulse leg, bears have been unable to do anything with it. For that reason, I am taking the obvious head-and-shoulders pattern as evidence that bitcoin is consolidating for a leap in a month or two to $65k or so, although not to new all-time highs. ______ UPDATE (June 11): Zzzzzzzzz. Head-and-shoulders pattern aside, I am unable to imagine a reason for such speculative fervor as that target would imply. It would reflective crazy-bullish sentiment that seems unlikely to return to securities markets for a long, long time. ______ UPDATE (June 12, 11:43 p.m.): I'd hate to be mistaken for a bitcoin bull just because I was fleetingly intrigued by an incipient head-and-shoulders formation that has turned to ca-ca with tonight's so-far $4,000 dive. I'd put out a 14,751 target in May which remains valid. To restore my bear bonafides,  here's a pattern with a 9507 target I'll start liking if sellers shred the  midpoint Hidden Pivot support at 20,930. For now, that can serve as our minimum downside objective.

One last head-fake to 3.24%?  That was my original target for a major top in interest rates. However, when the rally topped in May at 3.17%, I allowed for the possibility that it would stand as the high. Now, however, the chart pattern is looking more like a consolidation, implying a thrust to 3.24% is imminent. Odds of this would shorten if buyers can pop TNX above the 3.01% peak recorded on May 18. The novel concept of a peak in interest rates is based on the likelihood that rates are already high enough to send the U.S. and global economies into deepest recession, and on the recently begun collapse of the housing bubble.

Use the 4305.50 target shown as a minimum upside projection for the week. There is little doubt the futures will get there, given the way short-covering speared the midpoint Hidden Pivot resistance at 4058 toward the end of the week. Retracements were non-existent, leaving bears hanging on the ropes ahead of the three-day holiday. A move to the target would leave the June contract in an interesting place, just above three middling 'external' peaks made in late April and early May.  Since every chartist will read that as a bullish breakout, we'll look to exploit the obvious if it doesn't pan out as anticipated. Even if it does and the futures shoot higher, there may still be a discomfort-zone opportunity to get short at higher levels. 'Mechanical' buys would be signaled on a pullback to p=4056.50 or, less dangerously, to x=3932.00. Either trade would demand 'camo' risk control, since the implied entry risk on four contracts is more than $12,000.

The most bullish thing you could say about this sack of cement is that the May 16 low at 1785.00 did not quite reach its 'D' target. That's why I am returning to a big-picture pattern that is bullish, even if its 'D' target at 2075.41 greatly exceeds our expectations at the moment. A theoretical 'buy' that triggered last week implies a rally over the next 5-7 days to  p=1930.20, the pattern's midpoint Hidden Pivot. We'll be better able to judge whether the move is likely to hit D once we've seen buyers interact with that number. If it is impaled on first contact or the futures close above it for two consecutive days, that would shorten the odds of a continuation to 2075. ______ UPDATE: (May 31, 10:39 p.m.): Today's funereal price action raises the question of whether the future can even reach the midpoint pivot, let alone interact with it. The theoretical buy signal is still in effect, although there is no good  reason to actualize it. The good news is that gold will rally, although not too far, once we have become despairing of the possibility.

Like gold, silver did not reach a Hidden Pivot target on the last selloff, and so I've chosen to display a mildly bullish 'reverse' pattern to determine where the futures are likely to head next. Use the 22.71 target as a minimum upside projection for the near term. If it is easily exceeded, we can shift our sights up to the 23.94 'D' target of a larger reverse pattern. It can be located by placing the 'a' coordinate on the 23.93 low recorded on February 24.  That number looks likely to stymie bulls, but a decisive move through it would be the most positive sign we've seen in silver since February.