Rick Ackerman

The rally off the last low, 82.42, has been so unimpressive that we must consider the possibility of more downside to at least p=78.05 as the most likely scenario for the winter months. TLT would be a screaming buy at that price, although without any guarantees of a rip-roaring rally capable of surpassing the December 2022 peak at 109.68. Not coincidentally, the chart of TYX, which tracks interest rates on the long bond, has signaled a 'mechanical' buy for a move to as high as 6.16% (!). That number seems unreal, since the economy, along with the banking system, would almost surely collapse long before rates got that high. Or would they? In any event, the buy signal is about as 'textbook' as they get, so we'll need to take it seriously even if we can't understand it.

I won't queer the voodoo magic of a major rally target I mentioned here last week by repeating it in boldface, but the number is 4950.00, a Hidden Pivot resistance, and I was itching to get short there. The actual high, a new all-time record, was 4935.00 -- close enough to the target that Mr. Market could conceivably be working behind the scenes to deny us a shot at a potentially big winner. However, Friday's close was above the midpoint of the day's range, and there's still a high-probability target outstanding in Microsoft, so we'll assume our opportunity to pile on is intact.

The 'mechanical' short I mentioned here last week came home to roost with a pop through the green line (x=193.54) on Monday. OE (Option Experiment) participants already hold a small bearish position in the form of a vertical put spread, but it expires on Friday and won't come alive unless the stock tanks $10. That's hardly impossible, but I was reluctant to open a new front ahead of the weekend with an additional position.  We should trade with a bearish bias because of the 'mechanical' signal, so stay tuned to the chat room and your email notifications if you want to keep apprised. My strong gut feeling is that AAPL is much too hired to hoist itself above the 199.62 point 'C' high of the reverse pattern shown without pulling back first, possibly sharply.

I wouldn't trust a rally if it starts the week, but neither am I inclined to bottom-fish until such time as the futures drop into 'voodoo' territory just below 2000. A dip beneath two January lows near 2004 is obligatory in any event, so let's watch for it to develop. If and when that happens, we may be able to find a reverse pattern trigger of small degree to catch a ride north.  Big, meaningless days seem to be cropping up with greater frequency lately, so we should resolve to remain unexcitable if anything interesting appears to be happening.

Last Thursday's pop to the green line (x=23.154) triggered a very promising 'mechanical' short, by which I mean to imply that the pullback from it has about an 80% chance of coming down to at least the red line (p=22.58) where partial profit-taking would be warranted.  I missed the signal because I was focused on a pattern with a lower point 'A' high that needed a run-up to x=23.295 to trigger the short. We'll respect the signal in any case, starting the week with a bearish bias and a theoretical downside target at D=21.455.

GDXJ spent the week in an unpersuasive bounce from a voodoo number touched the previous week. An outside day on Wednesday that closed near the intraday low added to a mildly troubling picture, one that portends minimum downside over the near term to at least p=33.35 (see inset chart). Any slippage beneath that Hidden Pivot would of course open a path down to as low as 31.52. If we do any bottom-fishing, it should be at either p or p2=32.44.

We should probably expect crude quotes to reverse upward whenever pump prices slip below $3, since that would be just a little too peachy for the approximately 233 people who drive in the U.S. We can only hope the 78.86 Hidden Pivot target shown contains crude's current surge, since a breakout above that number wants reasons to explore a void on the chart that extends all the way up to $85/barrel. At the level, pump prices will be pushing $4/gallon, so let's cross our fingers and hope Houthis and the Blow-upfish don't up their game in the Persian Gulf. .

[This week's commentary was written by David Isham, a longtime Rick's Picks subscribers from Northern California who has been investing in bullion since he was in grade school four decades ago. RA ] Although gold appears to have broken out of a triple top and recently hit fresh all-time highs at $2152, the gold miners are trading at the same prices they were 20 years ago. I believe this strange disconnect is going to change this year, since gold is finally starting to outperform the CRB commodities index, oil in particular. Because energy makes up 60% of a mining company's costs, this implies the miners are about to become more profitable. Every bull or bear market has three phases -- accumulation, manipulation and distribution. We are in the accumulation phase now, where smart money is accumulating gold mining shares for the coming, multiyear bull market. Next will come the manipulation phase, also known as 'The Judas Swing'.  Aptly named for Judas’ betrayal of Jesus, in the stock-market world it is defined as a false move preceding a real move in the opposite direction. Telltale Sign One of the telltale signs that the miners have embarked on a new bull market will be a show of relative strength if the price of physical gold drops significantly in the months ahead. If mining stocks don't fall as much percentage-wise, gold investors should take encouragement, since the rise that follows will mark the likely resumption of the long-term bull market begun nearly two decades ago.  Finally, there will be a distribution phase where miners go parabolic and the public jumps in belatedly, buying stocks at or near the top. No one can say for sure how deeply gold will correct before it turns to embark on a spectacular run-up, but I wouldn't be

Judging from the ease with which buyers pushed through the midpoint resistance at 4558, the futures are headed to at least 4950.00, the Hidden Pivot rally target shown in the chart.  The pattern is too obvious to be of much use for getting short with pinpoint accuracy , but it will probably do for government work. It lies 5.3% above these levels, compared to a very important target in MSFT that is 8% above. Those two numbers could synch up nicely if the tech stock's ascent continues to outpace the S&Ps.